NL10 3bet pot with 3 barrels river hero call or fold?

raise for sure, you can just jam here I'd say

Lot of bad beats and three of kind against bigger three of kind. Lucky my read was good.

Played very passively, you have set against a player apparently fish, you have to extract the maximum value. On the turn I like the call, keep his bluff range and some minor pairs (QQ, JJ, 99, Kx weak) but I do not see a problem in starting to attack right here. On the river we have to look for call from these weaker hands, mainly against weak players who will pay frequently in this spot. Play your big hands aggressively!

Originally posted by ToddBrunson
Lot of bad beats and three of kind against bigger three of kind. Lucky my read was good.

You lost yourself anywhere between 2-3 dollars here in equity
You didn't really have a read here unless I'm missing something, just the sizings?

I agree that we should be raising, the turn...

About the sizings, he can be playing AK that way - board is dry and wants all PPs to call him.

I actually like the turn flat, we can allow him to keep putting money in with weak hands
And make our range look weak when we just flat + tempting for him to bluff river and keep betting his weaker made hands
And then our slam dunk Jam over a river bet has a lot less credibility as we just flatted turn

Originally posted by LemOn36
I actually like the turn flat, we can allow him to keep putting money in with weak hands
And make our range look weak when we just flat + tempting for him to bluff river and keep betting his weaker made hands
And then our slam dunk Jam over a river bet has a lot less credibility as we just flatted turn

He bets 1$ into 3$,..surely raising the turn is better? Denying equity to draws he barrels?

It is sure that at some point we should be raising.
I prefer raising the turn as there are more possible draws now.

I'm not that afraid of a backdoor draw in a 3bet pot so imo our hand doesn't need that much protection. 5d,6d and Kd also give us a full house so if villain has a FD he has dirty outs. So he either has a FD with 6 clean outs or a gutshot with 4 outs?

I agree with slam dunk jamming OTR.

What you got to realize is that draws you mention are pretty much hands like AQ here
that have 9% equity against you
And have bigger chance to improve to a pair on the river that'll give you some value as opposed to actually hitting

The only flush draws here that he should have SB vs MP3 are KdQd AdKd AdQd AdJd
Weaker AXs shouldn't be 3bet besides A2s-A5s in these positions really, and even those are aroudn breakeven ish. I expect fullring players to be pretty tight too so even QsJs might opt to fold or call, same might be the case for KdQd etc. actually

So we're talking of 3-10 flush draw combos, that aren't even folding to your raise ever
vs all the weaker hands he can have with the smaller size where he can bet a lot more KQ, even QQ JJ which are many more combos.

One thing to note is that you're not denying equity to his flush draws ever, as all of them either have a pair or are nut flush draws that are going to call unless you use a really large size, you're charging them the raise size on the turn but are going to lose anyways when he hits.
So you're denying equity to AQ, that you don't really want to fold out and other hands that you have just crushed

Don't get me wrong, nothing wrong with raising here as you can set up your own aggressive strategy with your gutters etc. easily and then you add sets. But you guys should be very careful of just blindly raising good hands because there's an extra suit on the board, where in reality the draws are not that much of a concern. Like it will be the case SBvs UTG/MP3 in fullring where 3bet ranges are really tight