[Closed] 99 on the Button

Tough decision. When CO is a TAG with normal stats, I would fold the hand probably.
Maybe you could provide me with some some additional stats from CO.

It's not about the individual villain, it's about the concept. Does Fold Equityon the flop + chance of drawing out + deception = +EV?

Well not completely, otherwise you could start making arguments about playing 72o ♦.

Very important in this situation is the villain's raising standards.
Someone playing the SHC will be around 8%.
Someone playing the ORC will be around 10-15%

He's in the cutoff with one limper so let's take his ranges around the 10%

So you've got a slight equity disadvantage here against him

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.3074 % 47.77% 00.54% { 99 }
Hand 2: 51.6926 % 51.15% 00.54% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

He only calls after your 3bet so it's probably either a pair beneath JJ or 2 expected overcards, which means that the flop texture and play will likely decide the hand.

I made this play a lot during my last 2 weeks on the beginner tables and it usually paid off.

99 is a tad too low for average stats though.
If we pokerstove TT for example.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.4813 % 51.91% 00.57% { TT }
Hand 2: 47.5187 % 46.95% 00.57% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

We have a nice equity advantage and this play would be completely correct.
Should he be more aggressive and raise 15% of his hands on the cutoff, we'd have a advantage with 99 as well.

In the end, the concept is good, but it is really important to adapt it to the villain in question and not just use it as a general move. Generally it only really pays off if you already have a slight equity advantage against his average hand. Otherwise it becomes a bit of a semi-bluff manouver with too few outs and that can hurt in the long run.

As said by Anakha it depends on the player. But his equity analysis is a tad off. Some1 in the cut off will raise more than 10% - 15% of his hands if he plays according to the ORC and more than 8% if he plays according to the SHC. The 8% and 10-15% are averages, if he plays according to the ORC he will infact raise 24.2% of his hands in the cutoff! I don't know the exact numbers for the SHC.
Furthermore you don't need 50% equity to make an isolation 3-bet 48% will do if the oponent is a lag and if he is not 46% is enough. This is because of the probable dead money in the pot due to the bb and the sb folding.

And if he raises with 24% in this situation, it's almost a 3-2 equity advantage. Plus, since the player is decent TAG, he very well could be trying to isolate the donk that limped from MP1. If he was, we just put him in an extremely awkward spot on the flop.

@Anakha, if he does happen to miss the flop with his overcards (which happens 2/3 of the time), we're 3-1 to win, even if he calls down. I like this play as more of a semibluff, I'm not entirely comfortable making it with 7-2o

@Shy, How about 88, TT, AQ, AJ? 87s?

You are correct shy :). But I listed the SHC and ORC averages as an example for some players raising standards.
For the numbers against an average player I use tighter percentages unless I have a good read. And since Emu meant this hand as a general example I did too (but I agree I should've been a bit more clear on those averages).

I forgot about the dead money though :). That definitely evens out the score more often and particularly in the given example.

@ Emu
I know Boschman actually made it a sport to occasionaly raise his favorite beer hand and to mark in his player notes who lost against his 72o ♦.

The 87s is too weak according to pokerstove . All the others are quite playable depeding again on the villain's raising range.

yep 72o is my favorite hand, and i still make money with it. actullay according pokertracker i won $8.95 with that hand.

if u make a good flop with it NOBODY expects a 72o

listen carefully children: dont do this at home

My friend does that obsessively too. Then again, he'll also play 8-2 and 7-3 because they're close to 7-2...

That level of expertise is out of bosch's grasp yet, but he's getting there. I have faith in him

thought we were playing bridge

against unknown player this is easy standard 3 bet preflop