turn push or better fold?

I think its well played. I like the shove OTT. Like you mentioned you have around 30% equity to make a strong hand and you also have alot of FE.
I think the villain doesnt know what fold means.
I think the play was good, just didnt worked out this time.

You're trying to make a weak Kx fold and the villain doesn't even fold QQ without a diamond... how do you feel about your move ?
I'm surprised you are up against QQ here but I find it spewy anyway. Villain is representing strong here and at NL5 they don't overbet/fold often at all.

You couldn't call OTT because it's an overbet. So it's push or fold. You have the nutflushdraw, plus the T to make a full-house. I don't know if an ace is counts on this spot.
You can have high fold equity in a spot like this against a good player, which doesn't seem to be the case.
That said I'd tend to fold to an overbet here against an opponent like this one.

Calling would not be optimal. Both push and fold are well played imo.
I'm curious to see other opinions.

Yeah I agree. Maybe I should tend to fold this spots from now on, but 30% eq is too much to fold imo.

Overbet on turn is always strong at this limits, I am sure your fold equity is 0 in this spot. 30% is enough to go all in? Pot is 20BB, so you have to put 66BB to win 66+20, so 66/(66+66+20)=43%. Thats an equity you need to make this move break even.
Thoughts?

Short stack = probably recreational
minraise pre = confirms villain is recreational + has a strong hand
big bet OTF and overbet OTT = confirms villain has a strong hand
Notice also that villain has to call just 40bb here.

There are a many guys saying we have a LOT of fold equity. I must agree with headshot2009 and say it is closer to 0%. So that part is a bit misjudged imo.

Then you also have to take into account that villain could have AA or KK. It means that if you hit an ace, you might still be behind. If you hit a T you might be behind. If you hit a diamond you might be behind. So counting 15 pure outs is too optimistic. Let's cut that down a bit and say we could count 10-12 in this case giving you max 25% equity.

Originally posted by headshot2009
Pot is 20BB, so you have to put 66BB to win 66+20, so 66/(66+66+20)=43%. Thats an equity you need to make this move break even.
Thoughts?

Correct, assuming 0% fold equity we would need 43% equity to break even with our shove. If we have that 25% equity I suggested, villain would have to fold about 38% for us to break even. If we have full 30% equity villain needs to fold 31%.

What is the easy way to count that fold equity we need in the situations like this?

I have made an excel sheet with a lot of different calculators. I change the values and check the EV we get.

The formula you can use is:

(current pot * FE%) + ((((current pot + villain's call) * win%) - (how much you are risking * lose%)) * 1-FE%)

In this situation:

(46.6bb * 0,38) + ((((46.6bb + 40bb) * 0,25) - (66bb * 0,75)) * 0,62)
17,708 + ((21,65 - 49,5) *0,62)
17,708 - 17,267 = +0,441 bbEV

Classic situation where you bluff the only player that you shouldn't be bluffing. Its so obvious that this villian is a fish and is in love with his hand. You have 0 fold equity imo.

A reg will be folding a lot in this spot. May be even overfolding and you would be printing money shoving this hand. If i am the villian i will fold absolutely every Kx (besides KT), i will fold AA and will call full houses, 9x, flushes and QJ. If i have info that you are a nit i will only call Q/J high flushes, full houses and will fold QJ and 9x as well.

Your bluff is good but vs the wrong opponent