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AA river vbet or c/b

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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

Hi!

Please you will write comment before you see the results.
Villain 270 hands, and played 19/4, flop to fold cbet 47, turn to fold cbet 33, river fold to cbet 0 (1). wtsd 40, wonsd 36.
I saw him some call one pair before this hand, so i thinked maybe have some value the river. What do you think check-back or cbet the river?

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $5.18 (103.6 bb)
BB: $12.02 (240.4 bb)
UTG+1: $6.04 (120.8 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $5.07 (101.4 bb)
MP1: $4.46 (89.2 bb)
MP2: $3.28 (65.6 bb)
MP3: $12.60 (252 bb)
CO: $3.05 (61 bb)
BTN: $5 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A♠ A♣
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, CO calls $0.15, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 4♦ Q♦ 8♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.23, CO calls $0.23

Turn: ($0.83) 3♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.53, CO calls $0.53

River: ($1.89) 5♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.91, CO calls $0.91

Spoiler

Results: $3.71 pot ($0.15 rake)
Final Board: 4♦ Q♦ 8♣ 3♠ 5♠
Hero showed A♠ A♣ and lost (-$1.82 net)
CO showed 4♣ 5♣ and won $3.56 ($1.74 net)


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8 replies
Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

First of all, stats are irrelevant on that sample. You might say he plays VPIP in range of 15-28VPIP and he does´t raise first in much. Flop I would either xr, as I think this will get stabbed a lot (villain has got bunch of PP, gutshots, FD, TP, 2nd pairs...). Or I would bet myselft big (around the pot). However my preffered option would be to xr. As played it´s fine, Qx will call. You are beat by 76 of diamonds (which is one combo), Ad2d and then some sests and thats it. So this is clear value bet, maybe with an even bigger sizing OTF (2/3).


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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

Flop check-raise???? And if villain push all in you can able to fold? Without any diamonds, i curious what you plan if villain re-raise. And most of time i cbet potbet only hands come the turn what beat me. Two pairs or better. The other you wrote i agreee, thanks.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

No, im not folding aa, i stack it off. Villain shouldnt really 3b there much or at least it dont make sense to me. Only hands that beat u are sets and qq i dont expect with 100% frequency. By xr u deny his equity and u make his life hard and get value from qx. The size of a bet depends on how ranges connect with the board (both, villains and urs). If villains range is stronger u wanna bet with low frequency and with huge sizing (u polarize urself). If u are stronger (typically on AKx boards) u can bet 100% of ur range with tiny sizing.


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MLima1984
Joined: 19.05.2015

I disagree w/ the x/r move OTF, we know nothing about the villain and there is a flush possibility.
I would raise all streets except maybe otr, because of the straight possibility.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I think this is fine. Just wonder why you bet so small OTR.


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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

That is why cbet half pot in river, because if villain little bit thinking never call weaker hand if i raise pot bet or 2/3. And of course villain got the out.


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OrigamiPoker
Joined: 27.10.2018

Bet the turn a bit bigger and shove the river and if raised on the flop or turn i'm never folding vs this stack size.I don't even think it's a close decision for 61bb.

Originally posted by ToddBrunson
That is why cbet half pot in river, because if villain little bit thinking never call weaker hand if i raise pot bet or 2/3. And of course villain got the out.

Villain is never folding Qx and i expect you will get alot of frustration calls from worse than top pair as'well.This player isn't really thinking to deeply.


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OrigamiPoker
Joined: 27.10.2018

Originally posted by MLima1984
I disagree w/ the x/r move OTF, we know nothing about the villain and there is a flush possibility.
I would raise all streets except maybe otr, because of the straight possibility.

Villains playing a pretty high vpip/prf gap and 61bb's over a decent sample size of 270 hands. So it should be all the info we need to know this player is a bad passive fish.I think checking vs this player is certainly a pretty big mistake though. So I agree with you that we should just be taking a betting line.


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