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Do we ever fold?

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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

After seen Lemon's video on Tour de Stakes where he claims (and proves) no one ever overbet bluffs the river, should we consider folding this hand?

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $1.99 (39.8 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (104.4 bb)
MP: $5.52 (110.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.72 (234.4 bb)
BTN: $4.66 (93.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J♠: J♣:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, BB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.45, BTN folds, SB calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.95) 5♦: 9♠: K♦: (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, SB folds

Turn: ($3.19) T♣: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.19) Q♥: (2 players)
BB bets $3.55, Hero ???


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30 replies
Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

Definitely 4b preflop. If you call, this will often goes mw and JJ perform atrociousy mw (low eq realization). As played this might very well be fold otf already, not sure though as we have a gs as well. Otr id just call, you wont have better bluff catcher here.


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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

Thanks for the input. Are we 4betting to get it in according to you? I find it hard to believe we ever do very good vs a 5betjamming range?


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

Yes, once you 4b you have to go with it. JJ+, AKo, AKs should be your standard stack off range here. But that depends on how often does BB 3b. For example if his 3b range is tight it might happen that JJ becomes better as a call instead of 4b. However this is imo must 4b, because there are two player behind and the worst case scenario is that you will go mw with JJ (which will happen in this spot fairly often).

You are right JJ arent super happy about getting it in here preflop, but still the best option imo.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

I don't like 4betting JJ pre at all. Saying JJ is poorly played in a 3bet pot multiway IP might be a little true but it's a joke as its playability is even poorer in a 4bet pot come on.

And no, 1,05x isn't an overbet river, it's a pot. You have the straight, you call. Simple.


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headshot2009
Joined: 01.08.2009

The easiest call ever OTR. You are blocking so much the only hand that beats you. Well played pre, flop, turn imo.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Cant ever fold this. You block AJ the only hand you lose to, and did indeed lost or you wouldn't have posted this.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Originally posted by zetozinho
and did indeed lost or you wouldn't have posted this.

How could you know ? You're such a mind reader :nh:


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Not sure I would ever call JJ on a K high flop when villain is betting in to 2 players. I doubt you beat anything accept a flush draw maybe. The river seems like a easy call. I doubt he has often AJ in his range and you block it as well.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

Originally posted by zetozinho
You block AJ the only hand you lose to, and did indeed lost or you wouldn't have posted this.

First of all, I indeed lost the hand.
Secondly, I marked the hand before calling so I definately considered it. MyFloxyBaby said this isn't an overbet (which is possible) but at the time I considered everything larger than a potbet an overbet. That together with Lemon stating that he only had 1 overbet bluff on the river over 261k hands on NL5, made me believe that I was actually beat here. I talked myself into a call because if he makes this bet with any J, he isn't actually bluffing either.

@SDK: I think BB has a super obvious squeezespot here so I believe if you're going to fold the higher end of your pocket pairs on any flop with one overcard, you're not doing a superb job. He obv squeezes AK, KQ, AA, KK and QQ but you definately have to put AJ, AQ, ATs and some other random hands in his range also. Folding flop is imo never an option here.


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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

Thanks for the imput everyone! :f_drink:


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY

Originally posted by zetozinho
and did indeed lost or you wouldn't have posted this.

How could you know ? You're such a mind reader :nh:

No one that wins a big pot with a massive hand like this straight is going to post this for analysis.
This hand is a call OTR ANYWHERE (I mean NL2 to NL100000) and against ANYONE.
About the river overbets, in PS where I play I can definitely tell you there are regs on NL5 that do it with the nuts and as bluff. Every session I play I face situations in spots like those. This is 2018 and here players are good, some of them are very good.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

An overbet has to be AT LEAST 1,5x the pot, it can even be way way bigger (I've got a friend that is a midstakes HU pro that told me he recently switched from 3x to 7x on some turn spots after having searched for advices because he felt he was getting called down too often :] ) so no 1,05x the pot is just about a pot bet, come on.
River pots might also not be often bluffs but you are not really calling to bluffcatch here, it doesn't make sense to think about it like that.

Folding on the flop against that sizing is indeed out of question.

And of course zeto I agree I was just joking ;)


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
And of course zeto I agree I was just joking ;)

I know Floxy :f_drink:
But I really wanted to make a point here. If you pay attention a lot of the hands that are posted are coolers. If you notice the owner of the post wasn't even worried about the pre, flop and turn play. He just really wants to know if calling the river is fine.
I know it's reasonable to start thinking you could get away and you in fact can, just press the fold button :f_thumbsup:
I used to do it myself, post the coolers I lost and expect to be told I played well.
And yes, a pot bet is not an overbet. Overbets are more and more common, people just have to get used to it or they'll have fu..g hard time.
Besides, if in 261k hands you only have made an overbet once you definitely have a leak on your game.


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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

Should I be apologizing now? I mean, this is a basic forum and I asked a basic question. I just wanted to clear out if there's a way out of this as I watched a video stating that river bluffs are rare and I couldn't imagine too many other hands playing like he did then AJ.

Fwiw, I did post obvious hands that I won in the past, played millions of MTT hands and the result really doesn't matter to me. As I said, the hand was marked before I pressed the call button. The moment you stop thinking about stuff is the moment you stop improving.

If you notice the owner of the post wasn't even worried about the pre, flop and turn play. He just really wants to know if calling the river is fine.

How is that a bad thing? I'm pretty comfortable about how I played the hand, there was a slight doubt about the river thats it. If I made huge errors earlier in the hand, you are free to react about that aswell (as some of you did). Should every hand start with, did I play correct pre, flop and turn if my question is about the river?


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Calm down dude, it's just that zeto is jealous because he can't seem to come by the river without having misplayed some place before is all


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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
Folding on the flop against that sizing is indeed out of question.

From what point do you consider folding to a single bet in this spot otf?


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I agree with SDK about folding flop. You share FE with SB and your hand absolutely no potential (besides when u river double double triple backdoor straight OTR). And about just calling pre. Is 3bettor really gonna be flatting our 4b that often? And if yes, isn´t it pretty easy to play, bet 1/4 OTF and shove OTT on low boards, pot control on Q+ high boards?


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samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

Originally posted by Mozzek
u river double double triple backdoor straight OTR

:f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly:


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Blazeto21
Joined: 25.09.2008

yes


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