
Is this ok or I'm just getting it all wrong? Villain is 18/16 in 250 hands, cbets 75%.
I would just call the turn. If u decide to raise, probably pick a smaller sizing, you are forcing all his overpairs (most of his range) to fold with the shove.
I agree with Fanko.
1. Since this is a 3bet pot, we can get the money in easily.
2. You are IP, so even if Villain checks, you get to bet.
3. You rep 99 and JJ, so for me folding AA-QQ would be a snap fold in Villain's shoes (since he is a reg 18/16, but would work great vs fish, because we wouldn't have FEQ vs overpairs).
Do you think we can fold this preflop? I think we are in an ugly spot, because UTG might 4bet, SB and BB might cold 4bet. I think QQ are the worst pair I cold call a 3bet here.
I would just call the turn as well with the nuts on the moment and you can still get the money in on the river if he would bet again.
Cheers,
SDK1987
About - call of fold preflop. I haven't studied this spot that much (It's very rare), but I filtered my database and can't clearly prove anything (small sample even after 800k hands or so). And for me it's rather cold 4bet or fold spot with most of my continuation range.
Some things to consider:
- Better to call if one of the players is a fish (might be also in SB or BB);
- better to call if we are often playing in mwp (then our risk/return gets better);
- Stacks are deeper (perfectly 20 to 1 SPR) if HU;
- Is UTG a 4bet or fold guy? Because, if he is then we should lean towards folding.
I know it's tempting to call in that kind of spot but the more I'm playing the less I like cold calling 3bet at all. Your range is so narrow, capped and face up it's a pain on most boards and you can't win a lot except on miraculous runouts like this one. Just fold this one. CO 3betting UTG shouldn't be here for show (without infos).
As played just call on the turn you have nothing to lose to keep his range wider.