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(FR) Betting a set OTR and getting raised

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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

Another spot where I don't know if I should lead or use my hand to catch a bluff.

$0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players

Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 39.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BTN: 104 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB: 108 BB (VPIP: 26.53, PFR: 20.41, 3Bet Preflop: 2.74, Hands: 200)
BB: 170 BB (VPIP: 17.91, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 13.79, Hands: 67)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 13.55, PFR: 6.72, 3Bet Preflop: 1.79, Hands: 781)
UTG+1: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 6.29, PFR: 3.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 162)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♥ 4♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 7♠ Q♣ 2♠
Thoughts:

Spoiler

against 2 villains, in this position and in a board without a K or an A, and without much chances to improve, in case someone calls my bet, I decided not to cbet.

BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (9.5 BB, 3 players) T♣
Thoughts:

Spoiler

worst card ever, because I think it connects more with the calling ranges than with my range.

BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

River: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 4♠
Thoughts and questions:

Spoiler

Now, a tricky river. I thought to bet/fold 2/3 pot. Then, to bet/call a small raise over my 1/2 pot bet.
But, in the end, that 3x raise looked scary...
Would villain do that with busted draws? Maybe an A of clubs or of hearts? Even a busted str8
Apart from that, I couldn't think in any other hand that would've played like that until the turn and raise as a bluff OTR :f_cry:
Thoughts?

BB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, CO raises to 14 BB, fold, fold

Spoiler

CO wins 18 BB


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I would x flop 100% of the time as well. Same goes with turn, I don´t think bet would generate enough FE. OTR I would definitely go for value. When it comes to sizing, 1/2 should be fine. Vs raise, only argument for calling might be, that our range looks capped af. Argument for folding is much stronger imo, ppl just don´t raise river bets as a bluff, so I would go with nitty approach and recommend to fold it. He doesn´t represent any bluff (credibly).


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