Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

AQo BTN vs BB hero call

5 Posts
3 Users
0 Reactions
338 Views
shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

partypoker - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 36.8 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BB: 122.2 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 16)
UTG: 115.8 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
MP: 243.4 BB (VPIP: 19.21, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.33, Hands: 183)
CO: 158 BB (VPIP: 13.21, PFR: 2.70, 3Bet Preflop: 1.48, Hands: 380)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ A♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) 8♦ 9♣ 2♦
BB bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (20.5 BB, 2 players) 3♥
BB bets 14.6 BB, Hero calls 14.6 BB

River: (49.7 BB, 2 players) Q♥
BB bets 30.7 BB, Hero calls 30.7 BB

Spoiler

BB shows 8♠ 6♠ (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 40%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows Q♠ A♥ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 60%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)
Hero wins 105.6 BB

On the flop I am thinking he c-bets here with flush draws, JTo, middle pairs, AK. I call in order to float his middle pairs and AK, and bluff the river in case the draws miss. I think that he raises more preflop with overpairs (TT-AA)
On the turn I am still convinced he has either a flush or straight draw, I think middle pairs and AK give up and do not cbet.
On the river the bet sizing is wrong for a straight - I think he would either bet small or overbet for value. So my read here is a busted flush draw.

Do I have enough fold equity to get to the river or should I be folding the turn?
Should I fold the river?


Reply
Quote
4 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think this is not good. Looks a little bit like a spew.

You can't just call the flop because you "think" he cbets with certain hands. Did you forget that he can also have 88+ and 89s? You can't think he would raise more with those big overpairs. He is a fish. He could even call AA. Maybe the idea behind his very small 3bet is that he tries to induce you to 4bet light? You can't also just think that he doesn't have a straight because his bet sizing is "wrong". When you play the microstakes and against recreational players you must always take into account that those guys don't do what they should do. You can never totally exclude some hands just based on how they played. Maybe this guy doesn't know how to size his bets, doesn't mean he would never have strong hands.

So, fold flop. If not, fold turn.


Reply
Quote
shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

Can I just assume that he is a fish based on the 16 hands stats and bet sizing that we have on the villain?

Otherwise what you are saying makes sense, thanks for the help :f_drink:


Reply
Quote
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

16 hands is suuuper small sample. If he would have closer to 100 VPIP then you could make some guesses. But since his VPIP is just a bit over 40% and the gap between VPIP and PFR is not huge, this could be just a regular guy who had a good start with many playable hands.

However, the bet size definitely suggests that 1) he is a fish or 2) that was a missclick. Sooo basically I would say he probably is a recreational but we can't be 100% sure yet.


Reply
Quote
MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

My god that spew. Fold on the turn if not on the flop come on.


Reply
Quote