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ATs missed flush draw

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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

partypoker - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 22.59, PFR: 16.89, 3Bet Preflop: 8.67, Hands: 468)
SB: 237.8 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
BB: 322.8 BB (VPIP: 25.09, PFR: 21.26, 3Bet Preflop: 9.58, Hands: 3,007)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 349 BB (VPIP: 23.40, PFR: 23.40, 3Bet Preflop: 18.75, Hands: 49)
CO: 117.2 BB (VPIP: 20.80, PFR: 16.74, 3Bet Preflop: 7.99, Hands: 1,592)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ T♦

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 9♦ 8♦ K♥
SB checks, Hero bets 4.4 BB, SB calls 4.4 BB

Turn: (15.8 BB, 2 players) 3♣
SB checks, Hero bets 9.9 BB, SB calls 9.9 BB

River: (35.6 BB, 2 players) 2♣
SB checks, Hero checks

Should I be betting here in order to fold missed draws/bluff catchers or do I just give up?

Spoiler

SB shows A♠ 8♠ (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 51%, Turn 73%)
Hero mucks A♦ T♦ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 69%, Flop 49%, Turn 27%)
SB wins 33.9 BB


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6 replies
MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Interesting spot, a lot of things could be possible. Some might check back that flop.
I think I'd go for a flop bet followed by a turn overbet. Villain should be quite capped but still willing to call a normal bet often.
As played why not 3 barrel indeed.


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eudodo
Joined: 11.05.2008

It's clear he is a station, I think I would give up.
Btw the sizing is not good, it is not even 2/3 pot. Would you bet tthe same with KQ on such a drawy board?


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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

Originally posted by eudodo
It's clear he is a station, I think I would give up.
Btw the sizing is not good, it is not even 2/3 pot. Would you bet tthe same with KQ on such a drawy board?

Sizing is 66% - exactly 2/3 of the pot :f_biggrin:
What would your sizing be? I usually use 66% for speculative hands and 80% for value hands. Don't think it matters a lot in NL10, people that are not regs don't pay attention to bet sizes much...


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

My god that's so not how to decide how you size in a spot.
Please us the same sizing with all of your range (let's put aside balancing multiple sizings for now lol but theoretically you should, at least in SRP BU vs BB it's easy, ranges are wide, the spot is occuring a lot and whatnot...).
What makes you decide for a sizing is the interaction between both ranges on the texture. The more you have a range advantage the more frequently you can bet but the smaller (except if you want to mix with overbets etc), whereas the less you have a range advantage the more often you're gonna check and thus when you bet you can go bigger as you are more polarized.

Think about all the hands you have there and don't target only some type of hands to get value from him (people tend to bet big to charge draws on a twotone flop for example whereas solvers often bet bigger on the rainbow version of the texture in fact), think about villain's whole range and what you are targeting, don't neglect denying equity to his air-OC-GS etc.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I like to check flop. Betting is ok too, you get a bigger pot for later streets if you hit.
Check turn and see a free card.
I like check flop bet turn or bet flop check turn.
As played, triple check call from villain would be quite ambitious. So you can throw a final bet and bluff, your hand is ok to do that.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I also think that the flop could go either way but with nut flush draw I might just like to increase the pot and bet it. OTR if we believe we have some showdown value with A high, then check might be ok. Now we block flush draws and our T blocks straight draws also, so I don't think we have that much showdown value --> we can fire a third barrel.

@eudodo
How is it clear that villain is a station? He plays with almost 250bbs and didn't do anything weird. Only thing that could suggest that is his stats 36/18 but the sample size is just 22 hands. And because those stats are not too extreme, I would not make any conclusions yet. It is very much possible that after we have 100 hands on this villain he is playing with 25/20.


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