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(FR) AA - overpair IP vs check raise

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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

$0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 71.8 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 137.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG+1: 82.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP: 160.2 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+1: 98.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♥ A♦

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 9 BB, fold

Flop: (25.4 BB, 2 players) 6♦ 9♠ 2♦
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 13.6 BB, UTG+1 calls 13.6 BB

Turn: (52.6 BB, 2 players) 9♦
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 26.2 BB, UTG+1 raises to 58 BB and is all-in, fold

UTG+1 wins 99.8 BB

Check back turn and reevaluate river?


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4 replies
zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Cant fold this. Snap call. Firstly, 9 should be a safe card. Secondly, you can redraw to beat a made flush, either by hiting a higher flush or a full. Thirdly, both of you will be commited for the river with a turn bet of that size. Bet bigger might not get so many calls too.
Dont see many reasons to check back either.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

As played the pot is 136.8bb and you need to call 31.8bb which means the required win% to break even is a bit less than 19%.
You have a nut flush draw but also a 9 would give you the nuts (1 extra out) + one of the two aces that are left would give you the best full house.

There is only 1 combo of 99 possible. This villain could call pre with 66 or 22 but he shouldn't, so we maybe could give quite small weight to villain's full houses.

I think as played this is a call vs that turn raise.

I think I kind of like betting here but I'm not completely sure which sizing we should use.


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Unless you are 100% positive that villain has 99, you can't fold vs his raise. You are getting enough pot odds to call.

You can still make the nut flush, a full house, and there is also a small chance that villain has a worst hand like TT or JJ. Usually he doesn't but sometimes he does.


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pokerboy198229
Joined: 20.08.2011

Next time bet higher flop and ship river when you consider his stack.


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