http://www.pokerhand.org/?4157409
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/0.50 Hold'em Cash Games, 6 Players
Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org
Board:
CO: $198.50
Button: $200.77
SB: $89.75
BB: $343.72
UTG: $384.83
UTG+1: $96.25
Dealt to UTG 6c6h
Pre-flop:
UTG raises to $2, (4 folds), BB raises to $13.50, UTG calls $12
Flop: ($28.25) 2c5h3c (2 Players)
BB all-in $329.72, UTG calls $329.72
Turn: ($687.69) Ts (2 Players)
River: ($687.69) 9h (2 Players)
BB Showed 9dAc
UTG Showed 6c6h
BB wins $684.69
So let's start out by bringing you guys up to the speed. I played 150 hands with that guy on that table. He overshoved 130 out of 150 of those hands. There was 2 types of shoves he did - either he just shoved pre flop over a raise or limp or just open shoved, or he made a huge 3bet and shoved any flop after get called(he also called any shove over the top pre flop). No matter how many players have called pre flop or how many players see the flop. He managed to build up a huge stack because, well, he run hot like hell and stacked regs one after another.
Clearly a nice fish. So it started out by me openr it to 4bb and he made a huge 3bet as usual. Since we were so deepstacked I definetly had the implied odds because he would shove any flop no matter what. I made the call pre flop. Flop came 235 with 2 clubs. As suspected he shoved the flop. I instacalled and after that made my calculations:
If he plays 100% of his range on that flop my equity is ~71%
If he has 2 overcards(which he will have way the most of the time) I have 75% equity.
I already knew it but the worrys are(wasn't for me because it was a snap call) variance and pot odds. Is it worth risking in such a spot with 700BB when the pot is only 27$ big and given stack sizes it will have a lot of variance. The thing is that I'll never hae pot odds against that guy(because he shoves every time no matter what) and even if I have a really strong hand our stack sizes are so big that it still has a huge variance. I'll give a few examples.
Even though AA are the absolute nuts pre flop. If he open shoves let's say from CO and you have the AA in BB against 88 you have 80% equity. Of course pot odds doesn't matter at this point but still there is a huge variance even against a hand like 88.
If you have KK(definetly a call) getting it in against a 100% large range you have 82% equity pre flop. Still a lot of variance given the stack sizes.
Let's say you both are so deeply stacked as in my posted hand. Flop comes AK9 with a FD possible. You call his shove with AA even though you know that he has the FD. He has 25% with his FD. Again a lot of variance.
Of course situations differ because in my posted hand there is a higher chance that I am beat on the flop but 10-15 hands out of 100% big range isn't a concern imo. Any way you look at it - it will be a gamble and will have a lot of variance.
Last factor which made my decision so easy was timing. It was only a matter of the time when he will get stacked by other regs and I really thought that this is the spot where it's worth taking a risk because there can be no other chance to do it.(I was right on that part he got stacked in like 10-15 hands).
Few more examples about his tendencys pre flop:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4157484
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4157488
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4157470
I am completely sure about my decision in that spot and I would make the call in the same spot every time. What I look for is ur opinions.
