
Villain seems tight, 18/15, only 40 hands.
Preflop open raise is standard from the SB.
Flop I have some doubts. I'm checking most of my Jx hands, some Kx too (K6s-KTs), bet the stronger Kx, including KJ, K4s.
Plan was check/fold flop with just a gut-shot OOP. But it went check/check.
I think he checks most Jx, some weak Kx. Makes sense to bet some small PP for protection imo, some 4x to, like A4, 54, 64.
OTT I improve to an OESD (any 8 or Q would give me a str8). I decided to bet the turn around 60%. I don't think bet small makes sense after checking the flop.
River is 3, completing the 65s str8 which I can have. I also can have 77.
I would take this line with some mid-strength Kx to induce calls from some Jx, even weaker Kx.
So I decided to bet around 3/4. Doesn't make sense to give up now after the turn bet. I think size is ok, can't be very small.
I'm also not blocking missed flushdraws that villain could play this way and is now folding often.
Ideas?