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exploitable fold yay or nay ?

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Villain
vpip/pfr/3bet
25/22/11.8
94 hands

I guess i could 4bet and gii with JJ from these positions vs a 12% 3bet but chose to flat pre.The sizing on the flop is big and then again on the turn is big so very polerizing.I dont really like folding the turn here but at the same time what do i beat vs this sizing.Can we call the turn and contemplate folding the river with 76bb left ? or should we be folding or shoving the turn.Thoughts on all streets i guess please and thank you in advance.

SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $7.06 (353 bb)
UTG: $1.86 (93 bb)
MP: $0.98 (49 bb)
Hero (CO): $2.97 (148.5 bb)
BTN: $1.03 (51.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.18

Flop: ($0.49, 2 players) 2 9 6
BB bets $0.38, Hero calls $0.38

Turn: ($1.25, 2 players) T
BB bets $0.82, Hero hates JJ ?


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6 replies
LMcrow
Joined: 15.08.2006

I call the turn on NL2 . If you are behind you still have your outs for the FD. ( sometimes)
But since hes betting so big on the turn again, and you are now even behind TT, i dont mind folding.

It depends, you can fold sometimes you can call sometimes. I think both plays are (okay.)
To find a better solution we need more stats, and reads on opponent.

I dont think just shoving in on the turn is a good play since hes showing a strong bet on the turn again.
Just calling or folding is fine. And i think there isnt anything we can do here.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

4betting is a decent option, but as played it's tough on the turn. Off course you have a flush draw as back-up, but if you hit it you don't get much action and you could be drawing the the 2nd best hand and is folding not to bad I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

Idk I’m pretty tired to make ranges rn but it looks like villain has AA-QQ or AK,AQ. Some players barrel like this when they missed with AK,AQ but he may have a club in his hand to help him out aswell. Putting him on AK AQ feels kind of optimistic but there are more combos of that that AA-QQ. AK and AQ
makes up 32 combos, AA-QQ makes up 18 combos. Is villain the type to not give up with his overcards?? Has he been barrelling frequently in past hands??

It’s a tough call , Not gunna lie I’d probrably go all in here . A lot of micro players I play against play missed AK AQ Like this and there are more combos of those than AA-QQ I would’ve shoved overtop on turn because of the J of clubs


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janmatheij
Joined: 07.02.2009

i think i would 4 bet small like 55/60 fold to a 5 bet .as played i would fold the turn bet it looks very strong if you call the turnbet you cant fold anymore in my opinion.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

if youbdont want to call this turn why dont we raise flop


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Urrgh you can’t call that preflop bet and expect good things to happen. Raise to avoid trouble.

Same goes for the flop, just raise to keep it simple.

By the turn you deserve to see a horrible card that ruins your hand. Instead, the Gods show you mercy. They grant you a card that the villain may barrel light. They give you one more chance to raise.

I get the feeling that if you dont go all-in on that turn the lord is going to smite thee down... Its probably around BE though.

You’re playing scared. Look, just because he raised doesn’t mean he has AA. It’s in his range, and we will usually lose stacks to it, but most of the other hands in his range would have gotten abused if you had raised on any street. Instead, it looks like you’re waiting for those hands to improve to beat you.


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