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Concern with playing an unregulated site

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I am looking for input to either encourage me to rebuy or caution me against it.

Here is my situation:
$.50-$1 100 max Black Chip poker site. I am in a state where I cannot play a US regulated site.

I won $100 a day religiously for a couple of weeks. Bankroll was $1400. I requested a cash out of $500. There was a flood of resistance and my application was declined even though I followed the Chat instructions to the letter. I did it all again and finally got it approved. The Chat person skipped a step in the process. I was told it would take 8 weeks to receive a check and if I didn't cash it within 60 days of receipt the money would be permanently forfeited.

I immediately started losing every session. I am the same player I was. I have had a startling succession of bad beats. I lost my last $200 yesterday in a series of incredible "only one way to play" bad beats. I had a friend come over to verify I was not exaggerating and we reviewed my entire day to see if I could have done something different.

I played a very conservative game. I never played a hand as weak as AJo or KQo. I had 2 wins. AA opened with 2.5 bb raise and got no callers. Flopped 999 small lead out and no callers. I never won another pot.
AKs Flopped K lost to a flopped flush. It is 8 to 1 my single opponent has the necessary suited cards to have flopped the flush. I lost the minimum, around $25. KK in SB BTN AA. BTN raised, I re-raised he went allin and I called. Re-Buy. 45s on the BTN Flopped nut straight 7 high against BB only. 763 I led out and got a call. Turn 3 check check river 3 Board is 763-3-3 BB goes all in. I can't beat anything he could possibly have called the flop bet with. I fold and lose $23. Last hand I flop nut flush on the BTN. UTG bets out. I call. Turn is a blank. UTG bets large. No need to raise as we are getting close to allin anyway but it would not have changed a thing. He was not going to fold to the small amount of chips I had left. Of course the board paired and called my remaining $12 or whatever and he had full house. I was sick when it paired but no point in folding the last $12 in case he had the occasional weaker flush.

I have had a similar chain of days like this to go through $900. No one hand means anything but the change is statistically unreasonable. I have checked the stats on all the players in my HUD and none of them are consistent winners. Some are ahead a little but none are ahead a lot over the course of time I have played with them and most are consistent losers.

So, has anyone had a similar experience or does anyone have information that would help me have confidence in the legitimacy of these offshore sites or ???


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24 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi skipbales,
I really can't comment on sites I know nothing about, but my general advice -- as always -- if you don't trust a site, don't play there.

Your experience of hitting a downswing after a withdrawal doesn't mean a whole lot, because variance is a very real thing.

Best of luck,
VS


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basti0901
Joined: 25.11.2007

ey dude, thats called variance and is something every player has to deal with. Thats the point where you have to think about if your mindset is strong enough to handle these swings.


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I have been playing for 50 years. Played professionally in the 70's. I understand variance. I also understand when a series of events exceeds all reasonable norms it is not variance. I grew up in a world where there was more cheating then honest play. I am talking about a two week run of unavoidable bad beats that I have never experienced in live play. When you consistently flop the nuts and get beat by running high odd hits the compound odds become statistically very unlikely if not close to impossible. Even flopping the nuts all the time is odd, let alone losing with them all the time. I only posted one day play but it was 14 days in a row of very similar experience.

Conversely before cashing out I ran unrealistically good. I could predict the turn card with uncanny accuracy. It was whatever I needed. I found myself saying out loud give me the 2 or 5 of hearts and bam there it was. The other component variance does not account for is the lack of winning players. My HUD shows the history of all the regular players I have been playing with and none are serious winners. Some are up a little but they are also the ones I have the least hand history for.

I used to play Pacific Poker before it was 888 and was legal in the US. I was a consistent winner. Switched to Full Tilt because Pacific closed for a while. I had a different experience at Full Tilt. One hand I recall as being an internet only type hand was flopping quad 3's and losing to a runner runner Royal Flush. That kind of stuff only happens on poorly scripted movies and the internet. I haven't lived long enough to ever witness anything similar in live play.

Mostly I was looking to hear from someone that they have played on the Winning Poker Network for years and are consistent winners. Or that there was another network that I could access from Arizona.


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Timmaywin
Joined: 23.02.2010

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
if you don't trust a site, don't play there.

this


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boy I sure am getting a lot of canned no value replies. lol doesn't anyone have anything of actual value to say?


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Originally posted by Timmaywin

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
if you don't trust a site, don't play there.

this

Of course but how do I make that determination? I thought I might find a pool of wisdom here to help me sort it out. I can't be the only player here who plays at this site. I am not interested in investing $500 per site to see if I like it. I thought that was what a forum was supposed to be about, sharing experience not giving flippant answers.


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venatici
Joined: 15.03.2010

Probably everyone is playing on regulated sites.


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By regulated I mean US licensed which are not available in most states, like here in AZ. Sites licensed by small countries where there is no real government is to me not regulated but that is all we have to pick from. I would just play live but Phoenix is 100 miles away from me. I am looking for some kind of reasonable alternative.


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venatici
Joined: 15.03.2010

Sorry to hear that.
There's a 2+2 poker forum where way more americans are active, perhaps you could search for advice there?


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Thank you. That is sincere help.


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venatici
Joined: 15.03.2010

Originally posted by skipbales
Thank you. That is sincere help.

You are welcome and good luck :f_thumbsup:


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by skipbales
boy I sure am getting a lot of canned no value replies. lol doesn't anyone have anything of actual value to say?

I'm guessing that very few -- if any -- players here on unregulated sites.

Also, I have a hard time imagining any replies that would have value.
"Me too" sorts of replies have little value either.

You mention Full Tilt -- it was supervised by Alderney or Guernsey (I can't remember which)
But I never had any quarrels with the frequency of bad beats.

Do you have graphs?
Raw data is how they managed to support their accusations against Mike Postle.

But even then...
Check out the "poker variance calculator"
For sake of argument, let's say you run like the blue line for 100K hands, then enter a "downswing" of 100K hands where you follow the brown line.

You'd tear hair out, even assuming that you didn't mess things up by changing you play incorrectly -- like folding hand pre-flop that you might properly have played.

Would it ever be possible to prove that a site was rigged?
If so, how?

Cheers,
VS


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I am registering there right now. I hope you have a winning month. !!! See you around the poker tables.
Skip


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Lazza61
Joined: 23.03.2011

Hey skipbales,

Options for US players outside of regulated states like NJ, Penn, Delaware, Nevada etc are fairly limited.

Obviously, the best is Americas Cardroom, which is the flagship room of Winning Poker Network.

There is also Ignition/Bovada/Bodog. I am not sure which ones currently accept US players as the licence holders keep changing, but as far as I know, Ignition should.

Then there is the Horizon Poker Network. I play on Juicy Stakes and I'm not sure if they accept Americans, but other skins do possibly Intertops.

There is the Merge Network, home of Carbon And BetOnLine. I understand traffic can be a problem there.

Finally, there is Global Poker. This site uses two virtual currencies to try to get around US laws and it worked for a while as they were white listed by PayPal. This has since been withdrawn.

Since the legislation covering online gambling was tightened in Australia 18 months ago, I can only play on US facing sites that accept cryptos for deposit/withdrawal.

In that time,I have played on ACR, Ignition and Juicy Stakes and have had no issues with the gameplay.

Another good place to ask for advice is on Twitch. There are a lot of US players streaming their games from the above sites and they will be able to give you far more in depth advice.

Regards

Laz


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Hey Laz,

Thanks for the information. What do you think of Ignition? I guess they used to be Bovada. Don't know if they are even licensed anymore but at least their withdrawal program seems good. I may have to give in and trade in Bitcoin because the withdrawal programs are tough.


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Lazza61
Joined: 23.03.2011

Hey skipbales,

Ignition bought Bovada's poker room assets in 2016 when Bovada decided it didn't want to offer poker anymore, however they changed their mind the following year and re-entered the market.

Ignition/Bovada/Bodog all share player pools through the Pai Wang Luo Network.

I didn't mind it at all. Player pool was soft and as a fully anonymous site, I tend to go better as I don't use HUDs and others can't, however the software is really plain and ugly.

Sadly, I lost access to Ignition last week due to a Government ordered ISP block.:f_cry:

Regards

Laz


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Thanks


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

I'd give Carbon Poker a miss.

I managed to build up a $500 bankroll starting from scratch on there only for the site to give me 48 hours notice to upload my identity details due to UK gaming regulations which came into effect. It was impossible for me to sort out my ID in such a short time period and I ended up giving back my winnings to the players at 4NL rather than letting the poker site take my bankroll.

I understand the Merge network is no longer popular like it used to be. Clearly players have voted with their feet and joined other US facing sites.


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Thank you. This is the type of information I was hoping for.


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