2nd Nut flush on the River.

Hi NAoise
I call simply because he can do this w/o the A of clubs.
If he has it fine.
There are also straights that he could have played like this, and weaker flushes.
There are also possible straight flushes on this board, but they are so rare.

I'm curious to see what others think though.

Cheers,
VS

I would 3bet 4x pre-flop OOP.

If you give villain this 3bet calling range:

QQ-77,ATs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo+,KQo

They would call the cbet OTF maybe with:

77,ATs,76s,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c,AQo+ (77 might also raise)

What would they bet with OTT? I think pretty much the same range. OTT your equity against that range is ~49% so you can call.

OTR if you assume villain doesn't pull off a bluff, these are the remaining hands that might bet:

QcJc,AcTc,AdKc,AhKc,AsKc,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdQc,AhQc,AsQc,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs

Your equity drops to 22% against that range. You need 30%. So it is a fold.

If you consider bluffs, too, then it is a close call, I guess.

I could be wrong about the estimation of the ranges though. I just started learning this stuff and it's quite easy to make mistakes... 😅

Also if you make small changes to the range, the equity changes drastically. You could include all Ac2c+ eg. then equity drops significantly... 🤯

I think all in all it is a marginal spot and it is not a bad idea to fold.

I'm curious to see what others think though. ;-)

I like your move:
3bet standard pre, cbet flop with to, cc turn with TP + 2nfd, cc river with flush

I would 4bet 15bb PF - 4x more 3bb for the caller.
On the flop and Turn i would play the same way.
On the tiver, yes, you have 2nd nut FD, you cannot fold this hand.

Second nuts apart from straight flush, most of the times you wont get that with AK. If you have solid reads/stats could be ok to fold, most of the times its not.