[Closed] 10PL drawing hand OOP flop and turn play

It's a NL section...

Have to put it here because there's no PL forum. Play it like NL if you like.

Preflop; full ring game, this early, I would be folding preflop honestly. You're in poor position throughout the hand.

Flop; the contibet is good, and a min raise at this level can mean anything. Still, I would put him on AQ+ and 99+, so you're not winning this one yet. I don't mind the call though

Turn; check/call is not the line I would take here. you've improved with a gut shot but nothing else. Still you need 40% to keep going here, and his bet isn't giving it you I don't think (I'm still shaky on the math at this point so I hope a judge can outline it better). Either way, I don't like chasing anymore after this so check/fold would be my favoured option here.

He has so many outs, lets do the math?:

Flushdraw:9
OESD:6 (2 discounted because they are in flushdraw)
Possible 1 overcard to win: 3

Its possible to have 18 outs there!!!!!

Now i say that maybe you have to discount the overcard because of of the chance he holds AQ so you have 15. Anyway, equilator results...

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 65.909 % 65.909 % 0.000 % 34.091 % AsQh
Player 2: 34.091 % 34.091 % 0.000 % 65.909 % AdTd

So roughly, 1 in 3 cases we will win.

With his bet we risk $3.4 to win $9. We need roughly 2:1 and it think we just get it...

I would play check/call here...

But my math has been rubbish, correct me if im wrong please and i will change it

he has a set

Originally posted by mrjorisa
he has a set

ooh didnt think about that, but if he does then its still 15 outs and still a good call imo

Just fold preflop. It's FR. You can be easly dominneted by a better Ace. (or JJ+)
It also not that easy to play AT OOP.
As played:

Preflop:
Make it 4BB if you are raising.

Postflop:
Flop:
You can C-bet on that flop with the nut-FD. I rather bet 2/3 of the pot which is 80c.
Turn:
I also play here C/C. You getting the right odds And a positive EV.

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 32.273% 32.273% 0.000% 67.727% AdTd
Player 2: 67.727% 67.727% 0.000% 32.273% 99, 77, AQs, AQo

Assuming you hit and you will get his remaining 1.93

EV(call)= 0.32*(10+1.93) - 0.67*(3.4) = 1.5 > 0

I don't like playing AT here... It's fine to open AT from HJ, CO or BU but it's not a hand you wanna open with UTG+1 imo.

Hello,

Preflop: Very loose, I'd prefer to fold here.

As played
Flop: Seems to be fine.
Turn: You can't really Call here, you either push after his bet or just fold.

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 67,727% 67,727% 0,000% 32,273% 99, 77, AQs, AQo
Player 2: 32,273% 32,273% 0,000% 67,727% AdTd

Calculation:
EV(Push) = 0,322*5,6 - 0,677*5,33 = -$1,8

So this is a fold for me. More often I give him here a set and against a set it's even bigger loss.

Best regards,
Rensu