KTs - Blind vs Blind

I do like the check on flop and turn. Playing OOP with this hand is hard.
You did most of the ranges, I tend to fold more with a potsize bet on the river. there are not many draws here but definitely a lot of better hands much of the time.

I am curious what the result might be.

My gut feeling is the call is -ev long term if you consider ranges and the lower frequency 3 barrel bluffs happen at these stakes you will pick off some bluffs but likely not at a high enough frequency.I put together a quick range in equilab including 7 missed flush draws i think that's reasonable, TT+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs.We need 33% equity getting 2/1 and we have 12% equity.I just dont think you can adjust the ranges enough to make a call +ev in this spot long term

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
My gut feeling is the call is -ev long term if you consider ranges and the lower frequency 3 barrel bluffs happen at these stakes you will pick off some bluffs but likely not at a high enough frequency.I put together a quick range in equilab including 7 missed flush draws i think that's reasonable, TT+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs.We need 33% equity getting 2/1 and we have 12% equity.I just dont think you can adjust the ranges enough to make a call +ev in this spot long term

Great analysis!

Originally posted by deuverman

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
My gut feeling is the call is -ev long term if you consider ranges and the lower frequency 3 barrel bluffs happen at these stakes you will pick off some bluffs but likely not at a high enough frequency.I put together a quick range in equilab including 7 missed flush draws i think that's reasonable, TT+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs.We need 33% equity getting 2/1 and we have 12% equity.I just dont think you can adjust the ranges enough to make a call +ev in this spot long term

Great analysis!

It would be if half those missed draws didn't contain a Jack which beat us

Adjusted the range for 5 bluffs @MonteCarol i see you put QT, T9, T8 77-99 in the op but i think villain mostly checks those back for showdown value on the river. vs TT+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,9s8s,8s7s,7s6s,6s5s,5s4s you have around 22% equity with 5 bluff combos.I threw in some 6x with the suited combos for value as well if villain has those type hands so closer than my first attempt but not quite enough.Im not sure if you can make up the extra 11% needed with bluffs it's possible but 5 bluff combos is reasonable i think.If you expand the bluffing range though you can obviously expand the value range as well the J is a pretty bad card for us as well as it does hit villains 3bet range.

Ok, so the best line is to call flop and turn and fold to the river bet, I think.
Needed to hear this because villain tripled off air (5:h 4:h ), and I was tempted to talk myself into thinking that it was a good move.
I guess, it doesn't count that I had a certain gut feeling here? 😂
Thanks!

Or can we exclude all one pair and weak 2pair combos maybe because villain would check them back?

Originally posted by monteCarlol
Or can we exclude all one pair and weak 2pair combos maybe because villain would check them back?

I think you can largely exclude those hands like 99-77 QT, T9, T8 they have enough showdown value to check back the river so why turn them in to a bluff ?. Same with hands like QJs TJs J9s i dont expect to see those jam river to much for value likely AJ shoves river for value possibly KJ.Personally i think villain is very polarized to air or strong value hands i dont see much middling strength hands wanting to shove it doesn't make sense for those hands. Villains exact holding is a decent bluff on that run out imo. As villain unblocks all your draws and has range advantage while being at the bottom of their range.And we should likely fold river , flop and turn is ok. Just my opinion of course i might be wrong i don't use solvers or anything so cant really answer in any definitive way.