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45man FT "bubble play"

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iceblast56
Joined: 13.07.2012

Hello, I have question regarding following hand.

It is 45m FT - 7 paid; I am facing a shove with incredible odds, but when I put this hand in ICMizer it showed me i should call just top 80% and this should be fold; Since I was getting 3,4:1 odds i could not resist and would actually call ATC in that spot since I get the equity needed with ATC even against top 5% range and I asume villain is shoving something like top 15%. Am I too lose to take these spots? I don't see how risking extra 1,3 BB could harm me that much even when I have 4bb since the call should be mathematically correct

Poker Stars, $1.36 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 60 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 6,674 (6.7 bb)
Hero (BB): 4,404 (4.4 bb)
UTG+1: 8,644 (8.6 bb)
UTG+2: 1,904 (1.9 bb)
MP1: 2,332 (2.3 bb)
MP2: 2,777 (2.8 bb)
MP3: 4,096 (4.1 bb)
CO: 8,937 (8.9 bb)
BTN: 27,732 (27.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2♦: J♠:
2 folds, MP1 raises to 2,272 and is all-in, 5 folds, Hero calls 1,272

Flop: (5,584) K♣: Q♥: A♦: (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (5,584) Q♣: (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (5,584) 4♠: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

5,584 pot
Final Board: K♣: Q♥: A♦: Q♣: 4♠:
Hero showed 2♦: J♠: and lost (-2,332 net)
MP1 showed K♠: A♠: and won 5,584 (3,252 net)


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

For me, this is a fold on the bubble, J♠:2♦: is a completely unconnected hand.

MP1 is not shoving wide, since UTG+2 goes through the blinds first, and will therefore blind out first, so therefore MP1 has a tighter range that the normal MP1 opening range.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

There still need to go 2 players out before ITM. This is a extreme shallow final table I think.
You get indeed insane odds. Problem if you lose this hand you are in 2bb left in the SB and than the change you will cash is really small. if this was from Cev perspective I would call with any 2. Now I would still fold.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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