JJ OOP in 3bet pot

the way you have presented the hand and your thoughts is exemplary.

unfortunatly you did not get villains range right:

usually the CO opens a 25-30% range. now check your 3bet success. you will find it at roughly 35%. so the CO continues w 65% of his range.

27,5 * 0,65 = 17,875%.

ok so, if I get it right I should be betting with bigger size OTT as there are so many FD's (i want to protect against) and hands I can bet for value. But still, against a raise without a specific read, that villain is raising draws I should fold.
Is that correct?

my suggestion was to redo the analysis, as the basis for it was false.

when thinking about defending against a raise, you need to look at your own range. you have to figure out the combos you took that line with and calculate the minimum defense frequency. when you have got that percentage, you just have to see, wether your specific hand is in there or not.

Originally posted by Pokrovec
I should fold. Is that correct?

i would rather show you how to calculate that yourself, than give you the concrete answer.

Originally posted by Pokamon
my suggestion was to redo the analysis, as the basis for it was false.

when thinking about defending against a raise, you need to look at your own range. you have to figure out the combos you took that line with and calculate the minimum defense frequency. when you have got that percentage, you just have to see, wether your specific hand is in there or not.

Originally posted by Pokrovec
I should fold. Is that correct?

i would rather show you how to calculate that yourself, than give you the concrete answer.

Let me then try one more time

so first let's define the range villain is calling my 3bet with:
I think your estimation is quite wide as the stake is NL5 and people there are folding a lot to 3bets. But I agree that my first estimation was too tight so I will make it wider now (this is based on the masterclass from w34z3l - you can see his recommendation for calling there 3bet from CO): JJ-99, AQs-ATs, KQs, JTs, T9s, AQo-AJo, KQo

Here is my value range for 3betting from SB against CO: JJ+, AQs+, KdQd, KhQh, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, AdTd, AhTh, AQo+, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AcJd, AcJh, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh (6.33%)

Now MDF calculation:
he is betting 2.50 into 3.05 (2.05 + mine bet 1) so: 2.50/(3.05+2.50)=0.45 x 100 = 45%
so if I am not mistaken I need to defend at least 45% of my range which would be 6.33 x 0.45 = 2.85%:
JJ+, AKs, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcKd, AcKh

and we can see that JJ is there so I should call

Originally posted by Pokrovec
so first let's define the range villain is calling my 3bet with:

look, its not about, what people SHOULD do. its about what your pool EVENTUALLY does.
you can calculate that pretty accurately. see above.

Originally posted by Pokrovec
Now MDF calculation:
he is betting 2.50 into 3.05 (2.05 + mine bet 1) so: 2.50/(3.05+2.50)=0.45 x 100 = 45%
so if I am not mistaken I need to defend at least 45% of my range which would be 6.33 x 0.45 = 2.85%:

2,85% on that specific board. so you plug in your range AND the board and go w the top 2,85% range.

(and burn those weasel ranges. they are terrible.)

.

Originally posted by Pokamon

Originally posted by Pokrovec
so first let's define the range villain is calling my 3bet with:

look, its not about, what people SHOULD do. its about what your pool EVENTUALLY does.
you can calculate that pretty accurately. see above.

Originally posted by Pokrovec
Now MDF calculation:
he is betting 2.50 into 3.05 (2.05 + mine bet 1) so: 2.50/(3.05+2.50)=0.45 x 100 = 45%
so if I am not mistaken I need to defend at least 45% of my range which would be 6.33 x 0.45 = 2.85%:

2,85% on that specific board. so you plug in your range AND the board and go w the top 2,85% range.

(and burn those weasel ranges. they are terrible.)

you are both right I selected the top 2.85% of my 3bet value range and did not consider board structure...
so it should be something like this: QQ+, AQs+, KdQd, KhQh, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs and obviously JJ is not there anymore...

anyway, why are w34z3ls ranges terrible? which ones would you then recommend to use?

Originally posted by Pokrovec

here we go!

Originally posted by Pokrovec
which ones would you then recommend to use?

for free i think snowie is not so bad. i dunno about weasels ranges overall, but the two you have showed in this thread look simply wrong.

Originally posted by Pokrovec
only small sample on villain: 23/19 after 27 hands

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (SB): $5.00 (100 bb)
BB: $7.18 (143.6 bb)
UTG: $4.68 (93.6 bb)
MP: $5.50 (110 bb)
CO: $5.11 (102.2 bb)
BTN: $5.00 (100 bb)

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has J J
2 folds, CO raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, CO calls $0.45

standard 3bet with bigger size from SB,
my estimation for his calling range: JJ-99, AJs+, AQo+, KQs+

Flop: ($1.25, 2 players) 4 Q 8
Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40

c-betting small to control pot and keep his smaller pp's in. there are more combos for pp's than flush draws so I think the smaller bet is better here
TT-99 - 12 combinations
AJs, AKs - 8 combinations

Turn: ($2.05, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $1.00, CO raises to $2.50, Hero folds

now there are only 6 combos of TT and 8 combos with FD I am still ahead, so maybe a bigger raise for protection and value would be better?
behind: 99, AQ, KQ,
ahead: TT, AJs, AKs
any chance villain will be raising here with a draw?

do you suggest a completely different approach to the hand? Something like x/c, x/c, x/f?

Spoiler

Results: $4.05 pot ($0.17 rake)
Final Board: 4 Q 8 9

CO wins $3.88

Jeeeezuz chriiiiist I hope I never run into you at 5NL ♦ This looks like I just walked into Quantum Theory for poker. My regular poker brain thinks this, no laughing please.
If I am looking at this from the villains POV, you 3bet me big pre and now you betting small, your hand doesn't look very strong. You not betting AA or KK or a AQ like that. Also if I had a Q why would I raise the turn, I'm way ahead of you (I'm definitely behind you in Quantum Poker Theory), I wanna keep all your smaller pairs and draws in. I like this hand, I've been looking it over now for almost 30min and running through what I'd do this with. I feel like your bet sizing induced me to turn my show down into a bluff, if that makes any sense. I really think you still ahead on the turn, I'm shoving the turn. Does anyone else shove the turn? Or am I the only donk running his JJ into a big set of ballz? ♦

Originally posted by jiffybag
Jeeeezuz chriiiiist I hope I never run into you at 5NL ♦ This looks like I just walked into Quantum Theory for poker. My regular poker brain thinks this, no laughing please.
If I am looking at this from the villains POV, you 3bet me big pre and now you betting small, your hand doesn't look very strong. You not betting AA or KK or a AQ like that. Also if I had a Q why would I raise the turn, I'm way ahead of you (I'm definitely behind you in Quantum Poker Theory), I wanna keep all your smaller pairs and draws in. I like this hand, I've been looking it over now for almost 30min and running through what I'd do this with. I feel like your bet sizing induced me to turn my show down into a bluff, if that makes any sense. I really think you still ahead on the turn, I'm shoving the turn. Does anyone else shove the turn? Or am I the only donk running his JJ into a big set of ballz? ♦

first of all, thank you for your kind words!
Hmm, I am not sure about bigger sizing. You can see OTT I am betting $1 into $2.05, so if villain will only call it would make the pot for the river $4.05, which will be an easy shove for me with the rest of my chips: $3. So I think I would play with premium hands with the same sizing ...

Of course, in case the villain will raise me OTT and I will have a premium hand then i will stick it in asap.