PLO5 AA54ss

It pains. You have top set, you have Nut FD blocker (but I thing in PLO2/PLO5) Nut FD blockers are not so importatn, people there are calling/betting any low flush).
If he has something like AxKdJxTd, or AxTd9d8x... he could call 2 streets and bet river.
You have appr. 0,5 SPR , I will not fold with top A set, he could try steal with 2 pairs AT or A7...

It's PLO5, so thinking how people should play and thinking how they actually play can be frustrating.

When he calls the turn, he should have a combo draw. Should. But I have seen people do that with naked gutshot without a flush draw. The question on the river is if the opponent has a habit of donking scare turns as a bluff. Without reads I would say that passive nitreg is not bluffing there often enough. I tend to make a lot of notes about river bets, donks and raises how they are value or bluffs. Helps a lot here if you would have a note about his bluffing strategy.

.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
It's PLO5, so thinking how people should play and thinking how they actually play can be frustrating. .

Do you meant my thinking about this hand?

*

My last playing .. AAKJ ds .. oponent call my 3B, flop QTx give me over pair, nut flush draw, nut backdoor flush fraw, and straight draw, opponent called my bet on flop, blank turn he caleld my bet, river briought 3 not suited to me, he bet agins me and show 8633r, he call preflop, flop and turn with pair of 3. I saw him, he did it 3x and all the time, river brought him set of 3.

I ment that it's very good to think what opponents should have and be doing, but in PLO5 the problem is that only a rare minority of players play according to that logic.

That leads to false feedback when you see their hands and it collides with your logical assumptions. That's why it is important to check with others (like this forum) whether you logic is flawed or their strategy.

Theorywise, his range doesn't have that many bluffs. It wouldn't make sense to turn made hand into a bluff or thin value, and as he didn't raise turn the only natural bluff is KQJx. As he calls big turn bet, he should have the flush draw decent amount of times.

If we assume he coyod be bluffing KQJx with one diamond or not, does he still make that bluff often enough? In my experience, without reads average 26/13 at micros is not.