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Running 65 BI under EV in 338k hands in PS

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yoskata
Joined: 07.09.2021

Hi, guys and happy new year.

I want to start with sharing some background info for me - I've been playing poker for some years maybe 10 but just recently in the past half year I really got into it and started learning and playing daily (nl25 reg tables in PS) and managed to put some significant volume. In the beginning (first 1-2 months) I was quite inexperienced and I was loosing rapidly because of some major leaks in my game such as not having correct preflop ranges rfi/3b/4b/5b, overplaying my hands, overcalling, overbluffing etc. but I've put a lot of effort everyday so far and I can really say that I've come a long way and my game is far better than half an year ago even though I'm still a loosing player.

Anyway, along the way I noticed I run waay below EV, in my game.. while using HUD and occasionally sites like smarthand to get stats of an opponent I've been through a lot of players and never ever really saw anyone running like this. I know that you're probably sick of people just whining about running bad etc. when in fact they're just bad but I believe I really DO actually run really bad. And this is not just all in ev, I can't even explain how many set-ups I experience. I know that they're normal especially when you're putting volume but I still think that what I experience is really far from the normal deviation. And also I have something to compare with - I've played 100k hands in GG poker again reg tables nl25 and I'm 3bb/100 winner over there.. I still have set ups over there, I still loose a lot of all ins when I'm favorite but its nothing like the variation in PS..

The thing is that at this point I take this whole situation personally and its not about the money at all and I really just want to overcome this and start winning in PS just to feel good and justify the energy and time which I've put in.

I'm just curious about your opinion for this and I will really appreciate if you have any advices.

PS: my nickname in PS is: lek0lud


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9 replies
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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi yoskata,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com :welcome:

I can't really speak to the EV thing — but the stats that I see are out of line are the steal stats — they seem very very low.
If your VPIP is 21, and you're stealing 23 and 24 from CO and BTN, then it indicates that you're opening far too wide from UTG and MP

Let's see what others think though...

Cheers,
VS


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yoskata
Joined: 07.09.2021

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Hi yoskata,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com :welcome:

I can't really speak to the EV thing — but the stats that I see are out of line are the steal stats — they seem very very low.
If your VPIP is 21, and you're stealing 23 and 24 from CO and BTN, then it indicates that you're opening far too wide from UTG and MP

Let's see what others think though...

Cheers,
VS

Hi, it seems that my overall steal is 23.6, steal from CO is 24 and respectively from BTN - 36.7 and SB - 40.9. I think the problem according to those stats is that I'm stealing more from the SB than from the BTN where I believe it should be the opposite as our SB range should be tighter than our BTN range.


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Pokamon
Joined: 15.04.2006

running below EV over such a sample is nerve wracking, still it happens and will even out in the long run.

in general your stats are on the tight passive site.

your c-bet game IP / OOP should differ a lot more.

why dont you stop playing and go back to school and grind it up later? there is no reason to bleed for such a long time.


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Matkalaulu
Joined: 03.01.2022

You run bad but your game is allso wery bad. Need to study more and stop thinking about running bad setups etc. They are just excuses for losing players who are too stubborn and proud to face the facts they are just bad. Agree w/ pokamon that you seem to be wery passive and this might be because you are playing too many tables?


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yoskata
Joined: 07.09.2021

I know that I should improve my game. Can you point out which stats should I focus on and what are the optimal ranges for them. Thanks.


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Talisker74
Joined: 17.08.2009

I guess you should not conentrate on some stats to improve.
Build up your game Byte focussing on Basics.
Cut down tables and focus on when to be aggressive and when to fold less.
Redline looks like a real desaster…


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Matkalaulu
Joined: 03.01.2022

Originally posted by yoskata
I know that I should improve my game. Can you point out which stats should I focus on and what are the optimal ranges for them. Thanks.

Postflop in general is my advice. It's way too tight and passive imo. Btw what happened just before the 100k hand mark? Did you ad more tables or switched from reg games to zoom or what? That drop looks like you don't pay any attention tothe game anymore.


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jiffybag
Joined: 21.12.2010

Originally posted by yoskata
I know that I should improve my game. Can you point out which stats should I focus on and what are the optimal ranges for them. Thanks.

It's not an issue with your stats. Its a issue with you overall game. You need to drop down in stakes and start from over. Do you set yourself a stop loss limit and drop down or stop playing if you reach it? There is no shame in dropping down and starting from over, everyone had to do it at some point.


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vengeance77
Joined: 18.04.2010

Hi,
I will try to help fast from theoretical point of vue !
PFR 16.8 should be at least 18.5.
Steal 23.6 is ridiculous! Should be at least 32.1! A lot more from BU esp and CO!
4b 11.7 lol! Your 4b range should be 2.1-3.4!
River Agg 33.3 is too much! It should be 24.5 top!

For the EV you can cash out everything and you will be with EV all the time if it annoys you:) Welcome to my world of running ridiculously bad!
Those are the most bad looking! Bye and GL!


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