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You will see the river card no matter what

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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 12.08 BB
SB: 105.52 BB
BB: 101.04 BB
UTG: 109.92 BB
MP: 55.08 BB
Hero (CO): 192.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♠ A♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, BTN raises to 12.08 BB and is all-in, fold, BB calls 11.08 BB, Hero calls 9.6 BB

Flop: (36.64 BB, 3 players) Q♠ K♦ T♠
BB bets 17.48 BB, Hero calls 17.48 BB

Turn: (71.6 BB, 3 players) 2♦
BB bets 34.16 BB, Hero ? ?

vs two unknown players,

Math vs Instinct vs Intuition

Thoughts?


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5 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Easy fold on the turn I think. Villain isn't bluffing and you need to hit the flush or straight to win.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by SDK1987
Easy fold on the turn I think. Villain isn't bluffing and you need to hit the flush or straight to win.

Cheers,
SDK1987

To win how many BB?


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

You need 25% for breakeven call. With nut fd and nut gs you have 20+% equity so there is almost no need for implied odds. Of course sometimes we get flush and board pairs which could mean negative implieds as well. But its just bit too good price to fold. Sure it sucks to call and not hit which is case most of time but that doesnt make fold better. Often most players cant get away from two pairs, set, etc. even in really nasty rivers when pot is already 150bb and there is 40bb behind so we will imo get implied value very often as well.

I dont necessarily hate just raising flop but of course issue is that villain donk betting into empty side pot should have very strong range. Our raise obviously should look super strong at that point to thinking player but...


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by ghaleon
You need 25% for breakeven call. With nut fd and nut gs you have 20+% equity so there is almost no need for implied odds. Of course sometimes we get flush and board pairs which could mean negative implieds as well. But its just bit too good price to fold. Sure it sucks to call and not hit which is case most of time but that doesnt make fold better. Often most players cant get away from two pairs, set, etc. even in really nasty rivers when pot is already 150bb and there is 40bb behind so we will imo get implied value very often as well.

I dont necessarily hate just raising flop but of course issue is that villain donk betting into empty side pot should have very strong range. Our raise obviously should look super strong at that point to thinking player but...

Yeah, my math on it was that I needed +15% to make the call with IO, and I have at least 20%, but at the same time you will see the river card no matter what so we are in the know.

Nice input, thanks.


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Fold preflop. Stack off right on the flop.


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