Hi
I was wondering if somebody could give me their take on Win Rate Ev Allin Adjusted please?
I’ve been playing MTTs regularly for a couple of years, and the whole time I’ve felt my luck on all-ins has been unusually bad (yeah I know, please keep reading). To try and figure out if it was all in my head, about a year ago I started paying attention to Win Rate Ev Allin Adjusted more, and almost every day it’s in the negative, and over a year and 65,000 hands it’s -16.72.
My question is whether -16.72 is within the normal range of what you might expect over a sample of that size? Because the equivalent of averaging -16.72 every single day just seems too far from the baseline for me to get my head around. I know it might not sound a lot, but given that all ins usually result in barrelling out of a tournament or doubling up and getting through to the money, it’s at least the difference between losing a lot of money, or breaking even over the course of the year.
I know there are wrinkles, and it doesn’t show how well you’re playing - if you go all in with Kings and come up against Aces it was still the right thing to do etc - but as an indicator of pure luck, isn’t Win Rate Ev Allin Adjusted the best we’ve got? And if so, how is it possible to average so much negative variance over 65k hands? I always thought poker was in large part about getting your opponents to commit with lower equity than you, and if you do that over the long run you’ll be a winning player, but now I’m starting to question whether it somehow means I’ve been getting it in at the wrong times?
If that is the case then I’m really confused as it’s very rare the cards get turned over and I’m behind; I just rarely seem to be able to get it through. Half the time I can’t even work out why they called me in the first place, based on their cards and similar stack size to mine. I try to play TAG, and appreciate of course that there are times when you shouldn’t jam it in based on position, stack sizes, number of opponents, the bubble etc, but I don’t want to believe the solution is to fold more, even when I’m pretty sure I’m ahead or the villain is bluffing.
You’ll say I’m tilted and should stop playing - and you’d be right on both counts - but before I do I’d love to know if I’ve just been experiencing a weird drag on my all-in luck over the past two years, or if my understanding of Win Rate Ev Allin Adjusted, and therefore my all in game in general, has been flawed all along.
Thank you!
Nick
