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Whats his 3bet range?

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Americandane
Joined: 04.12.2022

St Aug Bestbest 2/2, rake 6+2, 7handed.
Table is typically soft. Villain sits down to my left, sunglasses, after 3 orbits assess him as LAG good player, likely poker-educated. He's been involved and lost a couple of hands to typical multiplayer 1/2 scenarios. (He takes it in stride).

2 limps ahead from weak players. I raise to 15 on the button w 99. Table raises vary, this is on the higher side for this table.
SB, having 150 back and I cover, raises to 65. Limpers fold.
What's my play?
What's his likely range?


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi Americandane,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com :welcome:

I'm not familiar enough with live poker to judge, but if this was online, I would assume something like TT+,AQs+,A5s-A2s,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo+,JTo
Note that some of those are 3Bet/Fold and some are 3Bet/4Bet (or even shove)

Against your BU raise-over-limpers it might be tighter.

Equilab shows your equity thus:

       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     47.43%  47.19%   0.25% { 99 }
SB     52.57%  52.32%   0.25% { TT+, AQs+, A5s-A2s, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+, JTo }

I'm not a hold'em expert either — but I'm curious to see what the experts think...


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would expect villain isn't 3betting to light with only a $150 stack and 3betting for more than 1/3 of his remaining stack.
I expect it's less likely villain would 3bet with suited connectors and weak suited aces when he's committed if you shove.
That makes folding to the 3bet most likely the best move with in mind you are flipping at best or you expect villain could play hands like 99-66 like this as well.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Americandane
Joined: 04.12.2022

Thank you for the comments.
I folded. I saw it as a shove or fold decision.
I also guessed a tighter range than Vorpal above, although Vorpal is quoting the GTO 3Bet BB defend range on button open (the breadth of that range surprises me). I projected there was <10% chance that limpers would stay in the hand, and I assumed no fold equity with villian. So it looks like I had equity of 35% - 44%.

His 4x'ish raise is exactly right for sb, so again he may know the book and was wider than I surmised.

It seems like a coin flip at that stack size. Subsequent play did not change my impression.

Thanks again.
-Dane


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