JJ on overpaired board

It's interesting, we can do several things. The first thing I want to know is how many hands do you have on villain? What are his stats. Most importantly what is his donk %.

When he defends from the BB, he wants to have a donk-range on this board and put some Kx hands in there. Some regs do this, some don't. It's important to know which one we are facing here. If he likes to donk flop, we can 3-bet/fold turn because now he has less Kx in his range and more FD which have a hard time calling. If he never donks at all, we should expect him to have a decent amount of Kx when he x/r turn. Against that range, I think we can safely bet/fold turn.

On the river he goes 1/3th size which is a depolarized sizing. If he has a flush, he wants to go larger for value and if he has a bluff he wants to go larger to maximize fold equity. When he uses this small sizing he's never bluffing and never has a flush/boat and always shows up with a Kx type of hand, unless if he's balanced. Or he has reads on us and wants to specifically extract value from 99+. We don't beat Kx so we fold river. We can bluff-raise if we think he's capable to fold Kx but I wouldn't advice this on NL10.

Flop is pretty dry as well. Only a on later streets could hurt you're hand most of the time.
I would consider to controll the pot in position and check behind and give villain the change to bluff the turn and/or river.
If you Cbet it will be tough to get much value. Only TT-88 could call.

As played villains check/raise is really small on the turn. A draw seems unlikely. I would expect draws will just call or raise a lot more. Feels like villain will get a call of you and that indicated the small river bet as well. Folding seems tight on the river with the odds you get, but I don't expect villain will bluff like this or you have decent reads on him/her.

Cheers,
SDK1987

You think V would fold a weak K if you raised or shoved river? Which K would V fold? K5s, K9s, KT?

Originally posted by jiffybag
You think V would fold a weak K if you raised or shoved river? Which K would V fold? K5s, K9s, KT?

I don't know, maybe even AK, depends on what he's capable of folding. Your flushes take the same line. His 1/3th river bet looks like a block bet that wants to fold to a shove. Would you bet/fold AK in his shoes?

If you Cbet it will be tough to get much value. Only TT-88 could call.

I agree with check behind OTF but i expect V to call a cbet with a wider range here. We could add some baby pockets (the flop looks kind a safe for this type of hands) and some A♥: hands.

As played cant see folding OTT or OTR vs such a weak bets.