33 set vs river flush

Villains call on the turn is one of 2 things, either a A or a FD. If villain had something like Adx I'd expect a push. I check call on that river, I don't nearly block bet enough, maybe a small bet 20bb and fold to a shove, its hard to call with out info on V. If V made 2p on the river its also hard for him to raise now with the flush completing.

I expect villain would most likely fold a flush draw against a big check/raise.
Top pair+ seems more likely and better sets would most likely shove the turn already.
I would most likely go for a thin value shove to get a call of 2 pair or maybe even a strong ace.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Fold pre, we don't want to play a hand that misses flop very often and in case it does hit the flop can easily be dominated by better sets. UTG should have a tight opening-range with all the big pocket pairs. If we get in a set-over-set scenario, we loose a buy-in.

As played, I probably x/r flop to target his overpairs and flushdraws.

We decide to slowplay and x/r turn, which is not my preferable line, but it's okay I guess. At least we keep his Ax in and now target his Ax-combo's on this turn.

When he bets again on the turn though, I expect him to have more Ax-type of hands, because overpairs are more likely to checkback.

On the river he can only have 3 combo's of flushes imo. His Kx flush draws have no SDV and fold to your turn-raise imo. So he can have A♦: K♦: / A♦: Q♦: / A♦: J♦:

All his other Ax holdings don't have a flush. I would target those with a 1/3th potbet and fold to shove.

Folding pre-flop seems really tight with the implied odds you get to hit a set.

If we get in a set-over-set scenario, we loose a buy-in.

This doesn't happen that often. Opening 33 from UTG I might fold depending on who is in the blinds but I am calling to set mine every time.

Slowing down OTR is not a mistake. It's because players on these stakes love to chase draws even against the odds. You should give up here with some frequency. He has some flushes. But he has Ax hands and 2 pair combos as well. So i am more towards shoving big portion of the time