GG Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 118.1 BB
Hero (BB): 133.2 BB
UTG: 116.1 BB
MP: 137.8 BB
CO: 188.2 BB
BTN: 101 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♣ J♠
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, UTG calls 11.5 BB, fold
Flop: (30.5 BB, 2 players) J♥ 8♣ Q♥
Hero bets 15 BB, UTG calls 15 BB
Turn: (60.5 BB, 2 players) 5♥
Hero bets 30 BB, UTG calls 30 BB
River: (120.5 BB, 2 players) 6♠
Hero?
Pre, I don't want to overcall and play multi-way, I like to squeeze here. The solver wants to overcall. When he calls and doesn't 4-bet, he has hands like AQo/AQs, KQs, TT, 99, KTs, ATs - probably some AK aswell - my hand needs protection on this drawy board - so I decide to go large (50%) on the flop. The solver wants to go 33%. On the turn I continue building the pot and making myself ready for a river-jam. This is standard I think, the solver mixes between 33% and 50% - I decide to go with the 50% again.
On the river though, this is the question. Do we want to check and induce a jam? Actually the solver never jams here and always checks. It assumes that villain jams with: ATs, KTs (spade/club/diamond) - all AQs, some AKo and some hands that beat us obviously.
Is there actually more value in a check on the river than there is in a jam? In my mind, he's not folding AQ and KQ which I'm targetting throughout the entire hand and he might check them back when we check river, also he's probably checking back AK because it has SDV in his mind. Do they really bluff-jam AK in this scenario when checked to on NL10 really? Do they really jam AQ/KQ? I don't think so.
What do you guys think?
