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[Ks8d] vs MP fold to 3bet 50%/1k hands

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Zexion
Joined: 14.10.2011

Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP+1: $16.79 (167.9 bb)
CO: $10.00 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10.00 (100 bb)
SB: $8.01 (80.1 bb)
BB: $10.10 (101 bb)
UTG: $5.14 (51.4 bb)
UTG+1: $10.39 (103.9 bb)
MP: $13.58 (135.8 bb)

SB posts $0.05, BB posts $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K♠: 8♦:
3 folds, MP+1 raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, MP+1 calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 6♦: 8♥: K♦:
MP+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.95, 2 players) 2♠:
MP+1 bets $0.64, Hero raises to $1.38, MP+1 calls $0.74

River: ($4.71, 2 players) 7♥:
MP+1 checks, Hero bets $1.55, MP+1 raises to $14.51 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.17 and is all-in

Spoiler

Results: $20.15 pot ($1.01 rake)
Final Board: 6♦: 8♥: K♦: 2♠: 7♥:

MP+1 shows 7♣: 9♣:: (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 44%, Flop 28%, Turn 18%)

Hero shows K♠: 8♦:: (Two Pair, Kings and Eights)
(Pre 56%, Flop 72%, Turn 82%)

Hero wins $19.14

The opponent in question is a solid player with a VPIP of 18%, PFR of 15%, and a fold to 3bet percentage of 50% (75% from MP position). His fold to c-bet in 3bet pots is 100% and he have played a total of 1000 hands. Although the 3bet made against this player is considered to be relatively incorrect, the plan was to exploit the opponent's tendency to call frequently at 3bets but fold to c-bets post-flop.
Consequently, a c-bet was not made on the flop due to the player's capability of folding hands such as TT, JJ, and AQ.
On the turn, a larger raise could have been made with the intention of going all-in on the river.
The opponent's raise on the river may suggest a strong hand, but there is also a possibility that the small bet induced the all-in re-raise from the opponent.


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3 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Well I'm not 3Betting K8o vs MP even against a loose one. Me, I'll fold pre.
As played, once you have the 2pair, and since you 3Bet pre, I would suggest a rather large CBet — 2/3 is my preferred amount.

I never care if they fold


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Paraibuda
Joined: 24.08.2022

PF: If I were to exploit these tendencies, I'd prefer K8s and against CO. Also, the fact that you perceive V to be a solid player goes against your choice of doing such an exploitative maneuvre.

F: Although I like that you are making decisions based on the player, I don't think you can ignore board texture here: you might be right that he will fold JJ, TT, and AQ(o). But - even with those stats - I believe there are way more worse hands he will call with than worse hands he will make a disciplined fold. Gotta aim for those FD and Kx.

T: As played, I would raise larger. If you had cbetted, this would be a nice one to overbet.

R: As played, I'm folding. He's calling a lot of 3bets in and out of position, which makes him more likely to call with suited connectors that hit top pair and straight, pocket pairs that hit set.
To be true, I'm still calling that one (maybe because flush did not complete), but I'm not so sure that it's the right move. I wouldn't advise it hehe.


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

I think you should focus on basics first. When I read your hands then I have impression that you see one leak after very likely small sample and try to exploit it to more than max. If he overfolds to flop cbet then you may cbet wider and MAYBE make little looser 3bets, but not much. You should never go to extreme and raise super trashy hands like K8o - he is overfolding to flop cbet, but you will waste EV you gained by having very hard to defend super wide range in big pot.
This time this 'solid' guy calls 97s preflop. It also means that he is not folding K9s or KTs so your 3bet is even more terrible. Imagine board Kxx. Hard not to pay at least 2 streets with top pair, right?


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