Ahead when behind, what's the name for this?

Originally posted by AcesMagnet
Sorry if I posted this on the wrong board, it seems like a general question rather than one specific to a particular variant, and it's not a question about the hand at play but a general one about percentages and poker's habit of having a name for everything! 🤣

The situation is a pocket pair vs two over cards. So, the hand that gives rise to my question is (irrelevant but for the want of a better example):

I think that what you're looking for is "implied odds"
Think AK vs 99
Equilab puts the relative equities thus:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    45.40%  45.20%   0.20% { AKs, AKo }
BU     54.60%  54.40%   0.20% { 99 }

It is basically a flip preflop, but regardless of which side you're on, you're likely to get much more if say, both an A and 9 hit.

Hi Aces,

"ahead whilst behind" (or vice versa) doesn't really make any sense - you're either ahead or behind. I have seen the hand you have linked, though, and I get what you mean.

There is no specific term for the situation you have described, you would simply call the draw what it is, namely two overcards with a flush draw, or a 14-outer to be more precise (your opponent is holding one of your flush outs). You are correct in calling the situation preflop a "coinflip", and it still pretty much is after the flop: The classic coinflip scenario of a pocket pair vs two overcards is roughly 52% equity for the pocket pair, which is close to what you had on the flop here.

Note that "true" coinflips rarely occur in poker, i.e. you will very rarely get exactly 50% equity (disregarding split pots). It is enough to be roughly around the 50% mark to speak of a coinflip.

One thing that comes close to the situation you described would be a "monster draw", which is typically an open-ender plus a flush draw, and therefore a 15-outer. This also happens to be the amount of outs you would have had here if your opponent hadn't had a blocker to your flush. This one, I think, has about 54% equity on the flop, so it is also slightly ahead of the made hand.

So yes, a "monster draw" would probably be the closest to what you mean. You could also pretty much call it a coinflip, because it is close enough.

Originally posted by Harrier88
Hi Aces,

"ahead whilst behind" (or vice versa) doesn't really make any sense - you're either ahead or behind. I have seen the hand you have linked, though, and I get what you mean.

To be a little more specific, what I mean (and I think you got) is you're ahead, as in more likely to win, at 54% but you're behind because you haven't hit yet.

Implied odds was a phrase on the tip of my tongue but just wouldn't come to mind 😂 although it's not the name I was hoping to find.

Ahead - more likely than not to win the hand.
Behind - you don't (yet) have a made hand, indeed might not even make a hand (aside from high card).

Makes perfect sense to me - although I do get the point you made.

Also, in reference to the term coinflip, in my example I'm talking odds on the flop; pre-flop is different, and GG doesn't display those odds. In fact (like all apps, tbf?) it doesn't display the odds at all unless there is an all-in and any/all the action has ended.

And even when the action has ended, GG still only shows the odds/percentages from the flop onwards. Example, in the video I posted, I'm all-in pre-flop but the percentages only appear once the flop is dealt.

Whilst the term coinflip almost perfectly describes the situation of two overs vs pocket pair pre-flop, with one-two percent at most either way, in this hand at the point the question arose in my mind - on the flop, it was closer to 60/40 and thus why the question arose! I'm not a massive favourite, but since I expected to be the underdog, the question occurred to me to wonder what this is called! And why haven't I heard it before! LOL.

Monster draw!!!! That's it! Thanks Harrier. Although I think I would only use that term if there was still action to be had as opposed to already being all-in. If there was betting still to be had on the next street(s), then I'd probably have instantly called it a monster draw. Maybe my brain works weirdly (actually, there's no maybe about it, ROFL) but if the betting is over, then I'm not drawing, the money's already in. Even though I am drawing, because the hand isn't over. Wow. Brain freeze.

Not sure if you watched the video (or read through to the actual hand) but you calculated 54% - actually 53.84% - bang on!

Originally posted by AcesMagnet
Not sure if you watched the video (or read through to the actual hand) but you calculated 54% - actually 53.84% - bang on!

Actually, I didn't calculate anything, I just watched your video, and you also mentioned the 54% in your post. In fact, I looked up the other equities I mentioned too - I'm not really a Hold'em player, you know.
Well, I did calculate the outs, but that's not exactly advanced mathematics.

I think terms like "monster draw" are used regardless of the action that is left. A draw is still a draw, even if it occurs after the chips are in.

It's called "too many outs syndrome".

Basically what happens is you lose with a really big combo draw where both of your over cards are also outs and you have 60%+. This is very common and it does have a name...

Just as the chips are going towards your opponent, some donk on another table calls your 2x pot turn shove with a gutshot to the third nut straight and he hits it.

You start tilting and almost time out KK on another table. But you realize pretty fast you should've, in fact, timed them out.

The name of this whole situation is called Sunday.

Luckily, our boy won in the end here.

Losing with >60% equity draws is a frustratingly common scenario in PLO, I believe, where the draw is indeed often ahead of the made hand. Luckily, I don't really play that one either, and mostly know this situation from railings.

In Hold'em, I don't think you're likely to ever get more than the roughly 55% equity of a monster draw with an incomplete hand on a great draw.

One of the truly satisfying things in poker is having something an open-ended straight-flush draw against pocket Aces.

Board: 8♥4♣7♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    56.26%  56.26%   0.00% { Th9h }
BU     43.74%  43.74%   0.00% { AsAc }

You are ahead, but you have only outs.
Even if an A appears OTT, you still have nearly 30% equity — unless it's the A♥: in which case you have 77% equity.
My sig says, "Equitas evanescit pepedi quasi in vento" which is rather loosely latinized from "equity vanishes like a fart in the wind"