Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

PLO50 JJ66r too thin bet on turn?

6 Posts
3 Users
0 Reactions
615 Views
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007
BlackMember

So both villains seems fishy high vpip players but no specific reads. CO open, I call from BU and BB call. Flop went checked and turn it comes to me checked again. I decided to bet 1/3 as value and protection. I think this would be very reasonable at least on like A49J board with no straight possible.

Anyway idea in my bet is to get value from some weaker sets or two pair and try to get some straight draws to fold which have fair amount of equity versus my hand. I would not mind to use this sizing with some of the flushes as well and also some draws like lets say QT98 with one club.


Reply
Quote
5 replies
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Oldschool Grinder

I don't think straights fold to that sizing. There are hands that you get value from, but there are also hands that you valuetown yourself against. For valuebets, we need to beat over 50% of opponents calling ranges. Not sure it's the case here.


Reply
Quote
ghaleon Topic starter
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007
BlackMember

Nope straight won't fold but I meant straight draws like 89xx etc. At least in HU pots I like to protect my higher sets (possibly top 2 as well) if there are reasonable amount of straight draws that I won't block or cover.

Idea is to also build pot in case we hit boat so we want to have hand that will likely dominate other potential boats. It does open chance to get raised though but that tends to be very rare.


Reply
Quote
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Oldschool Grinder

Just out of curiosity, if we assume that they both check flushes on the turn, what are the odds that either one of them has a flush or straight? Probably we can exclude nutflush from CO range a bit (although it wouldn't be the world's biggest surprise if he had it). But if we assume their ranges are something like FI20 for CO and 50% for BB (doesn't really affect the odds if he has wider range) how often you would estimate that either one has a flush or straight?

I am too tired to calculate it now, might do it later. My initial thought is that the number is too high.


Reply
Quote
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Oldschool Grinder

Did a quick calculation. CO has flush/straight 32% of times and BB 29% of times. So that means they have it a bit over 50% of times. So it's getting REALLY close. With bet we do get protection versus the rest of ranges, but also valuetown ourselves versus flushes/straights.

I think it's on of those spots where it doesn't matter that much in the long run whether we check or bet. Versus good customers we don't really need to think board coverage on paired boards after turn bet etc. Nor push breakevenish spots, as we have good edge versus them.


Reply
Quote
regie
Joined: 06.03.2008
Oldschool Grinder

It is a turn check. Only the nut set is worth a bet but only soemtimes


Reply
Quote
Share: