10PLO R&C - AAK2 4 way Turned nut flush draw

For most in the player pool, it's a call. For those that understand probabilities it's a fold. Most likely pot bet is straight, and versus that you have 9 outs to make the flush. You will hit it 20% of times, or 1 out of 5. So to call 14,5bb to draw something where you win 1/5, you need to win (14,5 x 5) 72,5bb if you make it. After your call the pot would be 29bb, which means that you need to win at least 43,5bb more. Most of the times that is not going to happen.

Also, there are players behind you. They might call after you, which give you better pot odds but also means they might have a Club draw too (giving you less outs). Of they have a straight and they raise and you have to get it in with low equity. Very important aspect of PLO is to understand the probabilities of making draws and therefore understand when to fold a draw and when you can call.

Oops! I didn't see that you have 3 Clubs in your hand. That means you have just 8 outs, which means you need to win even more if you make it.

Most likely pot bet is straight, and versus that you have 9 outs to make the flush. You will hit it 20% of times, or 1 out of 5. So to call 14,5bb to draw something where you win 1/5, you need to win (14,5 x 5) 72,5bb if you make it.

8 outs x ~2.5 = 20% Equity that equals odds of 4:1. Pot odds are 2:1. We subtract the odds to get the implieds: 4-2=2.
This means we have to win back 2x Calling amount (14.5bb x2 = 29bb) on the river to make the play break-even.

Theoretically this could be a profitable call but it depends on how loose villain pays off our nutflush considering we also block nut second-nutflush. In reality against most decent players this is virtually impossible even more multiway which makes it fold ott. So the fold is a very strong play considering most people would call indeed. The main factor here is the amount of players in the pot which makes their betting range a condensed top-range (more straights than random non-nutted flushdraws) having us beat together with a lack of implied odds on the river. Without sufficient immediate odds and usually no implieds folding probably is best.

Kyyberi forgot to add one 14.5bb into pot after turn call so implieds requirement were too high.

Well played indeed. This is crappy flop for our hand. Even in HU pot it would not be cbet really as we have no interaction with flop at all and it's not good for our tight EP range either.

Originally posted by ghaleon
Kyyberi forgot to add one 14.5bb into pot after turn call so implieds requirement were too high.

Well played indeed. This is crappy flop for our hand. Even in HU pot it would not be cbet really as we have no interaction with flop at all and it's not good for our tight EP range either.

+1

9 outs hits 20%. 8 hits around 18%.

Good rule of thumb for PLO is 2+2, outs times two plus two. If you have over 10 outs, it's 2+3.

For exact number, there are 44 unknown cards in the deck. 9/44 = 20,5% and 8/44 = 18%

And yeah, I was a bit distracted and forgot to add hero's 14,5bb. So 29bb is needed on average to break even. Except with 8 outs it's 37bb which is almost the pot. And as it's the average, it's not enough that opponent calls big often. Let's say we pot when flush comes and opponent calls 3 out of 4 times. Our average implied odds are 33bb from pot of 43,5bb. Therefore it's good to think that if our estimated implied odds are very close to required, it might be better to fold as often opponent folds a bit more than we might estimate (especially when we need him to call wide).

Thanks guys, happy to hear you agree with the line. Also very happy with the math examples. I'm fairly comfortable with Outs, Equity & Odds but more and more i'm starting to realize it's even more important in PLO. I'll keep on studying spots like these, where my gut tells me my move is the best, but just run the numbers afterwards to confirm the gut feeling.

Good rule of thumb for PLO is 2+2, outs times two plus two. If you have over 10 outs, it's 2+3.

Yes I like this rule of thumb very much, forgot it though and made a habit of rough calculating with outs x 2.5 which is actually only applicable for flop-turn transitions. I was aware of that inaccuracy, that is why I wrote x "~"2.5. 29bb and 37bb is quite a difference though so I should be more careful when countin outs^^.