PLO50 QT98ds 3bet pot, river bluff?

Check, but we have the AAxx sometimes. In this spot Probably when it was deeper.

On turn i think we can fold. I would Bet sometimes QQxx in his shoes.

You think he folds Kxxx?

Originally posted by Kyyberi
You think he folds Kxxx?

Well as I said he seemed like solid reggy type. I think this is spot where we kind of want opponent to be as good as possible when bluffing. So I was thinking he is potentially good enough to fold trips decent amount of time. Of course if he assumes me to cbet AA most of time then its bad to bluff but if he had been following tables he should have noticed I didnt cbet that much overall frequency wise.

But yeah we do also have tiny bit of showdown value so potentially total air would be better to bluff with. But total air is pretty much limited to only QJTxds type stuff. We can have also some 6655ds type which seems to be solver favourite bluffs. I suppose for unblocking QJT completely.

I am not so sure how often reg would fold Kxxx. If you bet big, it's a spot where they think they should fold but might not could.

He could have hand like QQJT that we can make fold, but we block all those hands. And we beat air that bluffs the turn. Without SD valur and without blocking QJT bluff would a good option. But here, I don't think it's +EV.

Problem though is that hands that have no SD value and dont block QJT are more or less none. Those small double pairs are sort of like that though even those do beat total air. Well I checked earlier how villain is supposed to respond solver wise:

Seems really tight but around half of BU pot range consist of AA. Even though BU is potting 60% of his range. Solver does also some mergy pots with stuff like AK9x basically going for value versus weaker Ax and tries to fold out trips. But yeah I would not try stuff like that. Also solver was potting all trips but those were only 5% of range if I remember right.

But if we place ourselves on CO shoes and face pot bet from different sort of players question is how tight we should be? I mean this is spot where lot of people imo dont have almost any bluffs. So I would not be surprised if we can even fold hand like Q9 to be honest. Of course depends also somewhat on how we assume BU to play AA. If he overbets those on flop he will have less of those on river.

I believe he has AJTQ type of hand and checks River calling a Bet often or Kxxx something