PLO50 8774ds preflop line and turn decision?

For me it smells like CO has top 2 pair on flop, set probably check-raised and I fold on turn because weak fd maybe dead and CO is protecting his hand with full pot.

Yeah the problem though is that we still have 13 straight outs most of time not counting hearts. Three 3, three 4, two 7, two 8 and three 9. Not all are to nut straight. But yeah its not nice to face river shove if improving to flush. I think with flush draw available we will have better implieds in case of hitting straight.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but If his range is Sets, 2Pair+fd, str8, 789+fd, and TP+fd you have 40% equity. Am I missing something here? Isn't then a straight forward call OTT? why would you lean fold?

How can you be dead OTT? It's literally impossible imo.

In my opinion it's hard to find any other way to play it on any street.

Originally posted by BunBun00
How can you be dead OTT? It's literally impossible imo.

The question is rather if we raise or call. If villain is betting that presumed nut-range only (which is kinda unrealistic) we still have an odds-call ofc but it´s a spot we probably should raise having no SDV and bad visibility. Folding turn is obv. nonsense.

Speaking of raising. Shouldn't we be raising the flop here? If you aren't raising a very strong combo hand like the 2nd wrap with 2bdfd then what are you raising? If we don't raise such hands wouldn't the flop raising frequency be much lower than optimal?
I feel like if we should raise flop then pot most turns.

For raising flop issue is very few are making any sort of blocker bets in 4way pots. E.g. our fe is very low. Its plausible play to raise but being on position I prefer calling. Also on turn I dont expect to have fe versus pot bet so raising make no sense.

Are you calling river shove on non pairing flush river?

That hand is not very strong in 4way pot.

Originally posted by BunBun00
Speaking of raising. Shouldn't we be raising the flop here? If you aren't raising a very strong combo hand like the 2nd wrap with 2bdfd then what are you raising? If we don't raise such hands wouldn't the flop raising frequency be much lower than optimal?
I feel like if we should raise flop then pot most turns.

Yes we can raise the flop too. But I mean having both 7♥:7♣: would be kinda a candidate to call because by having both of the sevens we block the dominated straight draws. In my view it would be a nice randomizer to strengthen our calling range but Idk if that sort of balancing actually makes sense vs pop mway so maybe we should raise it anyways.

Today, 21:47 That hand is not very strong in 4way pot

16-wrap with backdoors on a rainbow light texture flop is basically nuts imo.

11 outs to nuts, which can be out drawn on the river in 4way pot is not nuts imo.

There is a huge difference in PLO whether it's hu or 4way pot. The more players there are, the more nut outs become relevant. Also backdoors are nice, but if anyone else has them they probably dominate hero's backdoors.

If the money goes in lets say 3way on the flop, hero might have easily just 25% equity. Against hands like T6 and 87 hero has 33% which is not what we want to have in 3way high SPR flop. Even hu versus T6 hero has 54%. Versus T87 hero's equity drops to 41% in hu.

We don´t need to have all outs to nuts. If villain is stacking-off he most likely has set eventually 2pair. Fmp usually opponents also do not tighten up their ranges appropriately to the number of players involved. At SPR 7 and with lowstakes player tendencies it´s basically nuts. It´s extremely difficult for anyone to hits exactly something that actually dominates us like wrap+pair or set+sd-blockers. At a higher like SPR 13+ I think it gets more iffy with multiple opponents.

Usually when we want to play for stacks, we should have way over 50% equity when SPR is higher. Here opponent donks with big sizing against 3 players, which indicates that he has a strong hand. We have enough outs to call, and we have 11 nut outs. If we call and others call behind, our EV goes up for the nut outs. But if we raise, we either get it in versus donker (I doubt he donks big and folds to a raise) or versus donker and 1-2 others. If we give them reasonable ranges, we never have equity that makes us a big favorite. What would we achieve with raise?

It comes to very basic poker: if we have two options where one is guaranteed +EV and other is breakeven or -EV, the decision should be quite simple.

Originally posted by ghaleon

Are you calling river shove on non pairing flush river?

I think it depends on if you have a solid read on villain. I would imagine solver would call a shove 100% but it might be very profitable to make an exploitative fold? I also wonder if we should donk lead/shove as well?

Originally posted by Kyyberi
Usually when we want to play for stacks, we should have way over 50% equity when SPR is higher.

We need less than 47% depending on what´s our FE it might be somewhere around 42% I´d estimate.

Here opponent donks with big sizing against 3 players, which indicates that he has a strong hand. We have enough outs to call, and we have 11 nut outs. If we call and others call behind, our EV goes up for the nut outs.

Well. It obviuosly depends on villains tendencies. But it´s true we want other players to come along, if we have implieds. Often multiway we have less implieds if villain plays solid. So it always depends on player types, if opponent is capable of leading less than a nut-range we should raise. If we think a bad player behind us will call and stack-off a non-nutted hand afterwards calling is better. But in a vacuum I still prefer raising without double sevens.

It comes to very basic poker: if we have two options where one is guaranteed +EV and other is breakeven or -EV, the decision should be quite simple.

Both options are clearly +EV. ♦

What would you give him as donking range?

And if hero raises, what range are two players behind coming along?

Originally posted by Kyyberi
What would you give him as donking range?

And if hero raises, what range are two players behind coming along?

Discounted top- and mid-set, top2pair, combodraws. He should also have some total air hand like tp/gs/blockers + backdoors/bd-playability that has equity against our no-sdv hand (possibly they have not and instead go towards a more merged range containing more non-nutted hands which would be more favourable).

If someone overcalls we are not pushing equity anymore but we won´t be drawing dead either, on half of the deck we will hit our flushredraw and still be flipping against set. Our raise will show tons of strength too so I think we can fold out some stuff. Indeed makes more sense 3way but you don´t know if they always keep it straightforward either, I´ve seen lots of crazy stuff 4way, usually there should not be lots of 4way situations at all from GTO perspective which is an indicator already for weak play. If it´s a bad player we still benefit from folding out sth. like oesd+sv and by folding vs pairing cards we are not giving implieds.

Well, if you assume that limp-happy player donks big with air in 4way pot, our estimation on ranges are quite different. I wouldn't discount higher sets, I would say he has way more sets than 2 pairs in his range, and minor part are nutty combo draws that dominate us. If we would knew it's just him, I would still call. No need to flip versus his range, when we can increase our EV by calling. And here there are 2 players behind, and if either one has 78 that likes to join the party, our equity drops and stacking off becomes -EV.

Solver doesn't really bluff in multiway pots. The only exception is Ace blocker sometimes. And the core reason is math, when we face 12 cards on the flop the chance of someone hitting the boards is just too high.

Well, if you assume that limp-happy player donks big with air in 4way pot, our estimation on ranges are quite different.

That´s hard to tell without stats. The average 20/16 tag does not do such a thing agreed, but if it´s a bad 26/9 weak tight might be occasionally or a more laggy 36/18 fish-regular it surely happens at PLO50. Limping is usually a fish play so it´s more likely that he will belong into categories that would donk-bet even loose or worse. In GTO world BB will have a similar range to the fish guy one (ie a 50/21 fish) from CO limp-calling (wide, mediocre ranked and somewhat capped). I cannot simulate 4way pots but 3way if SB checks, BB is supposed to stab on this texture with a pretty high frequency of 30%+. He is supposed to have a bunch of merged/pair stuff like bottom-2pair (bet 2pair with a total of 60%+). So if we assume CO plays a somewhat similar strategy to BB which is reasonable and which he should do (with a lowered freq. ofc since we are +1 player) we´d be fine to get some hands to fold. They won´t play good against this deviation here.

Assigning him a nuts-only range only without evidence is a significant deviation from GTO. Someone limps-calls and then just donks, it´s not aburd to assign him a potential bluffing range portion. Yes simplified spoken we have no raising range here actually and a player behind us can wake up. But practically we actually don´t want them to come along cheap either, there is always weird backdoor possibilities in PLO. I think most laggy/bad regulars don´t distinguish enough between 3-way and 4-way dynamics, but it´s not like we are blundering if we´d raise a 17-wrap+2bdfd on a rainbow flop. GTO does not like to raise it but it also plays against an aggressive barreling strategy oop that is more polarized and well balanced for runouts. I´d rather turn this one into a high-equity semi-bluff than starting to fiddle out the few 2-% bluffs. If we just call there will be more gray area spots we could make a mistake according to Sklansky, not much to be gained. Ie. if the river blanks and villain checks, how much are we supposed to bluff here? Nobody know since we don´t study those situations because they are so rare.