UTG min opens, CO 3bets, BU 4bets A♥:A♠:Q♣:8♠:
4♠:4♣:K♣: SPR2
CO pots it, I call
My thoughts were to fold any
turn. Is that too nitty? SPR OTT is 0.33. Flop is dry, no draws except Flushes. He either has Trips+ and fds.
Turn SPR0.33
Blank I stack off.
Same story. Just shove the flop, no reason to give freecards for flushdraws or continue selectively. If he is bluffing flush turns you'd be making a mistake possible which is folding. You know the betting strategies in ultra low SPR's are fundamentlly different for In position vs Out of position, if you don't have a solid calldown strategy for your specfic range (which you don't have cause it's a super rare preflop constellation) I'd simplify to getting it in with all AAxx.
If he is wider than trips/fd only I think a calldown makes sense? I could not fold the turn kinda, against trips it's a cooler but I have seen that indeed potting is often trips. It kinda depends on stats which help me a lot, passive players often pot their trips and it's extremely value-heavy so I could make a fold on the flop but without information I'd not fold. Today I just gii with AAJ7 against KK64 on 553r on flop spr3 (and lost^^)
deja vu from the other post ♦
If he does have a flush then he's going to shove every turn as SPR would be 0.3. On the rare chance he doesn't a missed turn I shove and regardless if he folds/calls I'm happy considering the pot odds he's getting. Shoving Flop I have very little FE imo especially vs FD.
If he's punting with some random hand he's going to continue a lot OTT similar to flushes and I would rather keep those in his range rather than shove and he folds out, not that I expect him to fold after potting but still. There's no way I'm folding on SPR2 without a major history/stats/read. I don't think I'm losing any value by calling OTF and reassessing rather than shoving.
I have recently read a chapter where Cori Mikesell analyzes a SPR 2 situation on the flop, once OOP and IP and investigates the range compoisitions respectively.
On T84r being oop at SPR2 we'd check the strongest hands like top-set and mid-set and the air-portion of lowest equity and push a merged/capped range of everything in between (>33% equity to stack-off). Paired flops like this one have a different texture and require other hand categories obv. but the concept oop at same SPR remains the same. Best hands are fulls so we might check that with less need for protection, to slowplay and balance and check-fold air without ♣ let's say. AAxx clearly belong into none of those categories so I'd just pot it, that's the theory for flop play and beyond that at SPR 0.33 we can't start making big laydowns ... Bottom line: It does not matter if villain is doing x or y with a flush, he won't hit it often enough to either justify his preflop play or to make us fold out the hand-type we have.
Apart from theorical optimum what I do since I rarely have "unknown players" on my tables is, I do have a betting strategy where I'd bet the flop with almost full range like 1/3pot and stack-off everything above that supposedly check-folding air hands anyways. It's inducing bluffs and weaker hands to call compared to shoving. Also many passive fish I have mentioned who pot here trips+ only there is no point in getting it in against a range that is already deviating so massively and we can actually save money by folding everything worse than trips - a typical candidate to fold against has sth. like 40/12/1.8 with AF < 1.7. But you need a reliable read to do that, just sticking it in might seem more wild and risky but actually it is the safe route.