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PLO100 AQ88ss nut trips facing raise

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

So SB is ok reg and BU was unknown.

I would just check lot of time on flop pot being 3way so I decided to include this in check range hand being somewhat weaker because of 88.

As flop went checked I delayed cbet turn and face pot raise by BU. Question is what is our response? From theory point of view I heavily doubt we can ever fold nut trips. Problem is how often we are actually facing bluff? From my experience its fairly rare. Now villain might think my range though is weak as I dont cbet flop.

Another side of the coin is again my 88 as that cuts my chance to improve from 9-10 outs to 5-6 or so in case we are beat. In general when BU checks back I would think he doesnt have AQ that often but on other hand it is also very dry flop so slowplay is possible. I feel this just tend to be spot where we are fairly often versus 55 and have at best 15% equity. Could BU take this line with weaker trips? Perhaps but not sure how much weight I should give to this possibility.

Game #2180737943: Table €100 PL - 0.50/1.00 - Pot Limit Omaha - 12:45:55 2024/11/04
Seated players
Seat 1: k_haukka (€103.97)
Seat 2: 1Ronin (€320.16)
Seat 3: maharazha (€101.50)
Seat 4: OzCobblepot (€100)
Seat 5: Ahytra (€277.82)
Seat 6: Tratt (€94.15)
Blinds and button
Tratt has the button
k_haukka posts small blind €0.50
1Ronin posts big blind €1
Hole cards
Dealt to Ahytra 8♥:8♦:Q♠:A♠:
Preflop
maharazha folds
OzCobblepot folds
Ahytra raises €3.50 to €3.50
Tratt calls €3.50
k_haukka calls €3
1Ronin folds
Flop Q♣:2♠:Q♥: (11.5€)
k_haukka checks
Ahytra checks
Tratt checks
Turn 5♥: (11.5€)
k_haukka checks
Ahytra bets €5.75
Tratt raises €28.75 to €28.75
k_haukka folds
Ahytra?


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I hate these spots, it's so easy to talk yourself to do anything.

"When I check flop and bet small on turn, I look weak. He can bluff a ton here if I fold this"
"He raises full pot 3way, that looks like Q5/55 for sure!"

There is a small chance that unknown is total maniac, but if we treat him as average Joe, that looks a lot like Q+. He could easily check back flop to be tricky, and if he has Q5 it makes sense to pot the turn.

Not sure about PLO100 tendencies, but at lower stakes that is too often 22+ and with pair our equity versus that range is that I would fold. The best case scenario is 50/50 flip, rare scenario that he has weaker trips and 20% equity. But with just trips I think he might just call more often than raise.


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ZakYoun270
Joined: 10.12.2015

since Qx is basically our entire value range, we definitely need to check some Qx on the flop imo. Do we want to check our weaker or stronger Qx? Having 88 we have more incentive to end the hand immediately, since we're much less likely to fill up on the turn or river. But since our hand structure is weaker we also benefit from keeping the pot small. We also don't lose as much if someone turns a miracle boat after we check, since our hand had less value in the first place (compared to AQJT for example).

Overall, I like check call with this hand. Basically, our goal is to win bluffs from our opponents (making +EV), and to punish bluffs (having a balanced and nuanced strategy which is not easily exploitable). It makes sense to try to do this with weaker Qx combos, since regardless of how good or bad our Qx is the value from inducing bluffs is the same. So we use the less valuable Qx holdings to do it. However we do have ace kicker, which is a confounding variable, the ace kicker has a lot of value. It would be even better to pursue a c/c line with QT88 for example.

On the turn, Q5 is possible. A raggedy Q567 or worse could check the flop, worried about being dominated by higher kickers.

I think we just scratch our head and fold to the turn. But I would definitely be keeping an eye on villain after.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

I ended up scratching my head and calling turn after a while. But was really torn between that and fold. River was miracle 8 where I x-c versus shove and villain had some AQ76 type hand for nut trips.

Buy yeah I think folding this and calling when we have more outs to improve could be best as default.


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