Is it me or the EV and the net results spread always increases?

Hi CrudeReality,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com

No, it isn't just you.
Your graph looks normal for a Tight Player.
(I fixed the link so it would work)
The blue line is your showdown winnings.
The red line is your non-showdown winnings.
The difference is the green line <<< this is really the only line you should worry about
The EV line represents all-in EV, which can only be determined if you or the opponent is all-in. Otherwise it just tracks the showdown line.

It is possible to improve your red line by stealing more, and by being more aggro in position — but there are risks.
Here's a great post from one of our former coaches on this topic:
https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=1214424#post1214424

Best of luck :gl:,
VS

I would say that the orange line is all you should focus on. It's the line that we have the most control of.

If orange and green line are gradually deviating from each other, there is a chance that it's an error in the way tracker counts it. If I remember right there was a problem with HM and GG for multiway pots, HM calculated it wrong. Also one explanation might be collusion, in PLO that would create difference for big sample sizes. 140K hands is still relatively small sample size to make any definitive conclusions, especially as over half of the time you have run pretty much according to your EV adjusted line. Just variance, keep on grinding.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
I would say that the orange line is all you should focus on. It's the line that we have the most control of.

If orange and green line are gradually deviating from each other, there is a chance that it's an error in the way tracker counts it.

Am I misreading this?
If I understand it correctly, the orange line is all-in EV, which can only change from the blue line if one or more players is all-in and the hand goes to showdown.

You can readily alter the red line by being more aggressive and stealing more — assuming opponents are folding enough.

...

Well, let me ask you this way: Would you like to have a graph where EV line is profitable but winnings are negative, or the other way around?

Short term, we care about winnings. Long term, we care about EV line.

Red and blue are often the outcome of the player pool and our strategy versus that. In passive environment our redline suffers (as no one folds) but blueline goes skyhigh. In aggro environment it's the other way around. We have some control of them, but they are also somewhat linked. If we force either one too much, the other one suffers. The easiest way to boost redline to maximum is to stop folding. But that would plunder blue line. Or the best way to boots blue is to go showdown only with the absolute nuts, but redline would sink.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
Well, let me ask you this way: Would you like to have a graph where EV line is profitable but winnings are negative, or the other way around?

If I'm correct that the green line is 'net $ won' (and it is in PT4) then that is all I really care about. I (try to) play each hand on its own merits, keeping in mind the tendencies of my opponents.

I really, really try to avoid showdown losses though — they are the costliest.

So you would be more happy to a session where green goes up and orange goes down, than the other way around? :f_o::f_o::f_o:

Originally posted by Kyyberi
So you would be more happy to a session where green goes up and orange goes down, than the other way around? :f_o::f_o::f_o:

If green goes up, then I won $$, so yes — for that session.
If I get it all-in behind and win, that is OK, but not sustainable.

For the long term, though, the all-in EV line (orange) would ideally track very closely to the blue line (showdown winnings). If you get it in ahead of the odds consistently over time then the all-in EV line will increase.
For example: September 4 PLO8, first 22 hands:
orange line tracks exactly with blue line until hand 9, where I got it all in behind and won (EV goes down, winnings go up)

On the 18th, I get it in good, and win: showdown goes way up, EV goes up somewhat less:

The one you *really* don't want to see is when your EV line goes up, but your winnings go down — for example when you get it in ahead and still lose.

...

Originally posted by Untiltable
Pay attention folks, because there's a wonderful poker lesson in this thread!

Absolutely.

as I said,

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
If green goes up, then I won $$, so yes — for that session.
If I get it all-in behind and win, that is OK, but not sustainable.

More than anything else, you need to be getting it in ahead — or not getting it all in at all.
On the other hand, if you get it in pre-flop with AK vs a small pocket pair, you most definitely want to suck out.

I don't want to sound picky (although I probably do), but sometimes we get it in with lower equity and we are happy about that. It's all about odds. If opponent bets shoves $10 into a pot of $30, we are happy to call with 30% equity.

Short term and recreational poker is about winning pots, long term approach is to make +EV decisions all the time.

I vote for EV, since it stands for Expected Value for a reason.