[Closed] NL50SH nut fush raised on paired river

Hi,

Hm.. Maybe i'm wrong but here is how i see it.

That guy seems competent from what you said, and even if he isn't, no wannabe lag running around playing 38/33 will ever pass on c-betting that flop against two tags. The only good reason i see him not c-betting such a good c-bet flop is him having a set, figuring he has so much fold equity when he c-bets that he won't ever make any money off two tight tags. That's especially true if he has KK, because then it's extremely difficult for you two to have a piece like a K to continue with, but 55/33 will do too. He would c-bet 22 there, it's worthless it's as good as air, it'll never hold up to win a showdown 3-way. He would barrel a flushdraw too. Maybe he checks some marginal hands behind but i doubt it.

When the flush gets there on the turn UTG obviously hates it, then you nearly pot it into two players and BB calls without breaking a sweat. UTG has to know even his set is likely no good at that point, so he has no reason to raise you there, just drawing to a boat getting more than 3:1 immediate odds, and with implieds because you both seem very interested, is better. I think he also dumps any marginal hands he checked the flop with at this point, maybe he overcalls with the Jd if he happens to have checked behind a flushdraw on the flop.

On the river you bet again and BB calls again, it's pretty clear that you two have at least a good Kx and one of you probably has a flush. Since Ad Kd Qd are all accounted for, we know the best flush anybody else could have is J-high, and there is no way UTG is raising both of you there with the Jd ever unless he's really bad, same thing if he happens to have Kx somehow. I'd say some players could bluff there because it looks so incredibly strong, but since his story adds up in my mind and it's nl50, i'd say it's way more likely he just has a boat in that spot.

I'm folding. Trigger point for me: a lag who's got 100% c-bet over 50 hands checks behind a dry Kxy flop against two tight tags after open-raising from UTG, it's never weakness in my mind until i've seen him give up on such flops or he proved to me he's really bad.

Hope it helps.

I call

The small pairs are really unrealistic because he would have bet in flop/turn, after all these are a hand that doesn't bring much security to slow play in a flush draw.

KK is more likely. On the other hand, after he hit the third king in the flush draw flop, he should have raised. I can't figure out someone confortable holding a set of Kings and allowing a flush to take you down, because nobody can believe in a new king in the turn.

QQ is a good guess here. The guy raised pre-flop and saw the king in the flop, got sad, but when you check the flop, he gets more confident.
Then you bet low in the turn and he calls. When the king comes in the river, the probability of you holding one is smaller. The only problem that I see in this theory is the flush.
He could not avoid thinking you were flushed. So QQ is not very good here.

What abot KQ? (AK would have bet in the flop in 99% of times).
KQ should have bet in the flop as well, but maybe he was intended to see what you guys had.

Well, tough hand, what did u do?