[Closed] AQo

If other player has a flush, then we have only 7 helpful cards to complete our nut flush. That is(47-7=40) 40:7 =6:1 odds to turn, 2.5/3:1 to river.

Pot is about 800 after his raise on the flop and we are pushing about 1,300 to win it. That is about 1:2 odds. Far from 2.5:1. And I doubt we can buy it here.
(Even if he was pushing, we would have close to 1.5:1 odds)

Also calling is 2:1 odds, far from 6:1.

So only fold here is an option in my opinion.

Don't think we shoud be playing Q or A on 4th or 5th streets.

Fold.

Any reads? I'm shoving over him on this flop all day vs an unknown. I think he only rarely has the flush, he could also have one pair + weaker flush draw or top pair. If instead of A you had the Q I'd be more inclined to fold. Also, you have to consider you do have fold equity if you push.

With the nut flush draw, two overcards, and back door straight, there are 16.5 outs to improve to TPTK minimum.

You would have to count at least 11 as clean. I couldn't fold here. You won't always be against the flush or a set.

Originally posted by aciddrop
With the nut flush draw, two overcards, and back door straight, there are 16.5 outs to improve to TPTK minimum.

You would have to count at least 11 as clean. I couldn't fold here. You won't always be against the flush or a set.

I guess, I sometimes give to much credit to my opponents. I played the worst case of scenario. Loose player with KcJc, any other clubs.
But if I was him (opponent) I would risk with 2 pairs (don't think he has it), set, flush, also overpair (don't think he has it). Top pair is hard to play against preflop agressor, because Hero could have overpair - JJ+ easily.

What do you think he could have? AT? I could sometimes put him on any middle, small pair. And I've seen people playing those cards as nuts (not set, not overpair), if there are not A, K, Q un the flop.

And you are right, I think I also couldn't fold it against tight player. It's so unreal that he could have set, if he's playing a good poker. I mean, calling raise 150$ with small, middle pair is quite loose play with 1500 + chips. And I wold give him AK mostly in this case.

Imagine he has here KT, with the K :club:.

Not saying he does, but he would certainly play it that way.

Folding could be right. But this is low stakes, your opponents often don't make good plays down here.

Reads count for a lot in cases like this, and gut instinct plays a part as well. Sometimes a flop donk like this feels strong, other times not.

I think I would have played the hand this way very often.

Hi all,

Nice hand well played.

@aciddrop: even against KcT we're still runing fine with the dead money more or less accounting for the ICM tax.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.047 secs 21,063 games/sec

Board: Tc 5c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.808% 50.81% 00.00% 503 0.00 { KcTd }
Hand 1: 49.192% 49.19% 00.00% 487 0.00 { AcQd }

To the others too worried about handreading here: don't be. Opponents could call your shove off with the naked K high flushdraw, bet/fold 99-, etc. Don't give microstakes players too much credit!

Yeah, Chenny, the KTs example was my point that it is a hand he could have against which we have good equity.