[Closed] NL100 : AK blinds vs LP squeeze

what kind of range would you put people like him?

i had a similar opponent who was doing the same exact thing from LP but was solid and i called him with 56s once to see what he does on the flop, 445 (2 hearts) came and he bet 19 in 24 and i folded

It would be interesting to know the stats of MP and CO because it mostly depends on them whether BU is in a good squeezespot or not.

In general vs an opponent that tight i think it's ok to fold AK in this spot.
If he 3bets 3.3% which is {JJ+, AK, AQs} (assuming he's a tight 3bettor)

and only pushes 2.6% which is {QQ+,AK} over your 4bet you win:

the $24 in the pot 20% [ (3.3% - 2.6%)/3.3% ] of the time and 80% of the time you have 40%EQ vs his range so you lose ~$17 [ (40% of $208) - (your $100 stack) ].

edit: i made a mistake, the pot was $24 instead of $20, i fixed it

So your expectation is $24 * 0.2 - $17 * 0.8 = -$8.8

@ excelgeo
I would'nt call a squeeze with 65s even IP if you're just 100BB deep.
It is almost impossible to turn a profit with this hand given the stack to pot ration in a squeezed pot.

Very interesting, thank you.

I guess I am really stupid.

This is the kind of situation i always wanted to know. But never found anyone that could explain me. =p

I dont understand how u got to 20% and 80%.

And i also didnt understand how u u get to the 2nd part of math.

Could u explain me?

Originally posted by Strongsl
I dont understand how u got to 20% and 80%.

I use Pokerstove and put in the range of {JJ+, AKo, AKs, AQs}. If you do this in the window where you can click on the hands to add them it shows you the percentage of your choice in relation to all hands, in this case 3.3%.

Then i deselect the hands which i think he will fold to a 4bet, so i deselect JJ and AQs and Pokerstove shows me that now i have 2.6% of the total hands selected.

Now i calculate the difference, which is 3.3%-2.6%=0.7%.

So he folds 0.7% of a 3.3% range, which means he folds 0.7%/3.3%=0.21=21%=~20%.

Since he folds 20% he continues with 80%.

And i also didnt understand how u u get to the 2nd part of math.

There are 24$ in the pot (MP openraise + CO call + BU 3bet).
If you 4bet the opponent will fold 20% of the time as we just calculated above.
So in 20% of the cases you will immediately win 24$, so your EV is 0.2*$24= $4.8.

In the other 80% of the time he will push and you will call with AK.
So i take the range which with i think he will push with, in this case {QQ+, AK} and stove the equity vs this range, which is approximately 40%.
You have an effective stack of $100 with BU, so the final pot will be $208 (your stack, BUs stack and the MP-PFR and the CO call).
Your ev is your EQ times the pot, so 0.4 * $208 = $83.2.
Since you invested $100 this makes up to a loss of ~$17.

This will happen 80% of the time, so you'll lose $17 * 80% = $17*0.8=13.6

Now you add gains and losses (losses with negative algebraic sign), so you have

$4.8 + (-$13.6)= -$8.8

If you have further questions feel free to ask them.