[Closed] NL400 99 - set, and scary turn card

bet to protect

Donk-check (if u can call it that) is so weird line. It usually means weakness (at least for me) but it also can be a trap, since you like traps you can bet courageously, turn is scary card but I would still bet, cause he might have hit the ace or you can protect yourself (if he c/r you there you are often behind?).

I understand you guys, but I'm not completly sure if this bet was correctly - If he had something like KK with K:h he would probably call anyway, otherwise (if I was ahead) he have only 2 outs against me, and can pay me off on river unless next heart would come. What do you think about it?

Originally posted by TheNaturat
I understand you guys, but I'm not completly sure if this bet was correctly - If he had something like KK with K:h he would probably call anyway, otherwise (if I was ahead) he have only 2 outs against me, and can pay me off on river unless next heart would come. What do you think about it?

Well if he is passive i will raise flop for value, hes stack is small as well so no need to slow play imo, oh just saw u bet ok!

As played i might think of checking turn for bluff induce/pot control.
If he checks river i value bet if it blanks.
He will most likely call any A* hand and maybe JJ+ , T*, on river blank.

btw if ur read/stats are accurate the wet board doesn't mean that mush according to his UTG+1 raise. How often does he hold an Oesd there? and flush draw Aks? Or do you think different?

As I said, I didn't knew him, and had only 60 hands - it's not too many, but still I don't think if he would C/C AK on flop, or raise Tx on preflop (maybe TT, but then I'm doomed) - I think that his range there was JJ+, OESD or flush made on turn looks rather unreal...

Nice hand, you should bet turn also, you can bet flop with all hands; Draws, sets, pairs and a lot of air.

If he has an overpair or a KQ with a heart or maybe AK or something, you should def bet turn, as you said KK:heart: would probably call anyway, and QQ too. You can make a small vbet on river if it is non hearted,

I'd bet bigger at the flop, he will either call or fold to your bet regardless (to a certain extent) of how big it is, if he checks AKo he's going to fold, if he checks K :heart:Q (or any FD) or JJ+ he will call or even raise anyway.

At the turn you have a bet.
Since the A is of hearts it's an even better card because A :heart:K :heart:-A :heart:J are now impossible for him to have.
That means that you're pretty much scared of K :heart:Q and Q :heart:J :heart:.
2 combinations are a very small part of his range.
(Ok there are 3 combinations of TT and 3 of AA but most people would bet their AA on this flop and bet and raise with top set all day so it is unlikely for him to have.

Vs JJ-KK you won't get much value anyway, so you should protect your hand vs some single hearts.
Maybe he did even c/c some kind of Ax hand at the flop and you get some additional value.

I put him on range like JJ+ - I hadn't many hands, but still with 2% PFR I don't think if he would raise from UTG AT/QJ/KQ etc, and c/c AK on flop.

If he had big pair with heart I cannot protect my hand, he would call anyway. Otherwise he had only 2 outs - I can give him free card, and I think that he would call one bet more on the river unless next heart come.

I've spoken with few players, and we decided that best way would be to bet pretty big on turn - he would probably call even against odds - he had about 20% to hit his card, and I wouldn't pay him off if heart come, so I think that best way would be to bet something like $60 - he have then big EV-, but probably is still calling with Q:h Qx etc.