[Closed] FR 10c/20c: AQo

He either has a set or Ax I think.

The 4 on the turn doesnt complete any draws so Ax or a set is very likely because players on these limits overrate Ax. Possibly he hit some kind of OESD or smth but thats not really likely. You have like 6 outs but you'll have to discount some, as he could have a set (which means you're beat) and an A doesnt make you win the hand in some cases (if he holds A4893). Though even with 6 outs it would be a bad call (6 outs means you need to get 7:1 and you only get 4.25:1) 4 or 5 outs would make it even worse. Good fold imo.

Hi!

This hand cannot have one certain answer. You have to look at his stats/reads. If he is a very passive straightforward calling station who always bet when has a hand then certainly a fold is the best option.

However in this case we assume he is an average 0,1/0,2 player and I think this donk goes from complete bluffs to very strong hands. Very often he has a weak made hand like a low pair or Ax here. But also he could be playing a draw like this as he think he has fold equity when it get HU. Of course he may have a monster but it is small part of his range.

To conclude... I am calling here at least once more and without any read I am also calling most rivers( probably not J,T,7).

I was also thinking about a raise for a freeSD but I guess its not good as you cant fold to a 3-bet getting 1:9 with possibly up to 6 outs.
opinions?

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Hi!

This hand cannot have one certain answer. You have to look at his stats/reads. If he is a very passive straightforward calling station who always bet when has a hand then certainly a fold is the best option.

I think that's like the general rule on this limit. If they bet, they at least have something, and they tend to overrate Ax (A4 in this case) and low pocketpairs.

However in this case we assume he is an average 0,1/0,2 player and I think this donk goes from complete bluffs to very strong hands. Very often he has a weak made hand like a low pair or Ax here. But also he could be playing a draw like this as he think he has fold equity when it get HU. Of course he may have a monster but it is small part of his range.

I think a set is an option here too. 44 calling a preflop raise and then go as a calling station donk, overrating low pairs. Then he hits his set and instead of checkraising (which would make more value) he donks out.

And the more I think about this, the more I really believe he had 44. With any Ax, why would he first checkcall to then donk the turn? Maybe A4 but I think a donk would keep on checkcalling.

To conclude... I am calling here at least once more and without any read I am also calling most rivers( probably not J,T,7).

I was also thinking about a raise for a freeSD but I guess its not good as you cant fold to a 3-bet getting 1:9 with possibly up to 6 outs.
opinions?

My first thought was the same as yours (just calldown) , but again I dont really get it why he donks that turn and I start believing he could have 44. For me raising is not an option here.

What do you think his handrange is? What kind of hands would first checkcall the flop and then bet the turn? I just have this feeling he must have hit the turn somehow. Might be A4 but I believe he would checkcall that one...

Hi!

I dont hink that all players on these limits are passive not capable of bluffing. Many are capable of irrational moves so I think their ranges are often polorised between bluffs and very strong hands.

Yes putting him on a range is the hardest thing. I put him on a very wide range and that is why I cant fold here on such a blank. He can have almost any pair+ that is majority of his range. But definately I put him on some hands that we beat like Ahigh(if he has A4 then he also has A2,A5,...), also some overcard gutshots like QJ,QT and definetely some strong draws like JT,67.And complete bluffs are never excluded too

To calldown we need around 22%+ on the turn and I think we are getting it. Also he will often miss his river value bet with a low pair so we need even less. I still like the calldown

"if he has A4 then he also has A2,A5,... , also some overcard gutshots like QJ,QT and definetely some strong draws like JT,67.And complete bluffs are never excluded too"

This is actually a very hard discussion without any reads on him. I just dont get it why he would donk out unimproved after a checkcall on the flop. If I think of any average player he could have any made hand as from bottom pair, any set or overpair and these draws you say. But with Ax (non paired) and especially those draws (except for 67) I just dont see why he would bet out, as litteraly nothing changed in the situation for him compared to the flop.

I do get your point though so if I have to give him a handrange I'd go for any paired hand, PP, overcards or set and maybe 67. Thats still not very wide (as for the SD/gutshots I dont really see why he would first checkcall and then donk in the same situation), but calling down is possible.

But now I have another question. Can you actually assume a player to make irrational moves, without any reads on him?

Hi matovx,

I don't mind folding here. Calling down here on this dry board is a pretty advanced play and has a lot variance in it as well which isn't needed at the microlimits yet.
If you do this in the wrong spot it may even be pretty expensive for you so just fold here.

"But now I have another question. Can you actually assume a player to make irrational moves, without any reads on him?"

Sure you can. You always need to consider a stuipid play by them but don't overestimate it and call just because of that.