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[Closed] nl100 99 vs reraise

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WildBeans
Joined: 23.09.2008

raise to 5 because of someone posting the small and big blind.. Then it seems like I'm priced in. I'm basically getting around 33% to call and with a highish pocket pair that's pretty good. Plus, I may be perceived as trying to steal the dead money. Against the tightest range I would give, AA-JJ AK, I get 33%. In this case I get 34% pot odds. But if I give a little bit extra because of the situation, say pocket pairs down to 88, maybe even AQ then i get a significant increase in my equity...
Of the villain I only had 75 hands at 11/10 and had 3bet twice out of 20 possible times..
Fold or call?

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

Known players:
[tg]MP1$100.00:///////;MP2(Hero)$20.00:///////;MP3$54.10:///////;CO$20.00:///////;BU$126.65:///////;SB$20.50:///////;BB$117.05:///////;UTG1$18.50:///////;UTG2$28.60:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9:h, 9:d.
MP3 posts deadblind, MP3 posts deadblind, 3 folds, (Pot at this stage is $3) Hero raises to $5.00, MP3 folds, CO raises to $20.00(All-In), 3 folds, Hero calls $15.00(All-In).


4 replies

i would fold here, on the assumption that i'm playing another competent short stack, and he will be 3-betting after adjusting to my range.

and 99 is in the lower end of our range. so he could probably be putting us on TT+, AQ+, which gives him at least JJ+, AK+. That gives us 28.5% equity.


Ishindar
Joined: 31.12.2008

u are right in the middle of his general range. he might be slightly loser in this situation and u are in for 5$ already so id take the flip :)


I wouldn't compensate too much for the dead money. If you bet too much you price yourself in. Betting $4 I think would be perfect. They get slightly better odds (2.33 to 1 instead of 2 to 1) but you won't commit yourself too much. However even when you bet $5 and this guy reraises you, you have to call $15 to win $28 which means you need about 35% to make a BREAKEVEN call. If they reraise AJ+ 77+ then this is a call, but a 10/11 probably will reraise AK+, JJ+ here so this is an easy fold.


Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

Hi,

You get $20+$5+$1.5+$2]*0.95 against $15 which = 35.6%

I wouldn't rely on much except VPIP/PFR on 75 hands, maybe acquiring a database would be a positive investment

But giving the fact that you are slightly -EV against 3% (AK+,JJ+) but +EV against AQ,TT+ - I think you are in a high variance spot.

Still I'd shove to give him a sort of note after this hand + you might be playing profitable in case you see AQ,88,TT popping up. _love:

- Gerv