Just played a live game. Pretty sick hand i had there:
SB: Hero about 250 BBs deep
BB: decent TAG, havent played a lot of hands with him, has me covered
MP2: Calling station, 150 bbs deep
MP3: Loose passive pretty bad player. Dont remember how much he had.
CO: LAG, solid player, huge stack, like 600 BBs
BU: Kinda unknown, seems like a weak TAG/nit, about 150 BBs deep
Hero has 99
MP2 posts a stradel
MP3 folds
CO calls
BU raises to 10 BBs
Hero calls 10 BBs
BB calls 10 BBs
MP2 calls 10 BBs
CO calls 10 BBs
I wasnt sure whether or not to isolate BU, at best i can hope for a flip against him. I figured it was better to induce calls from the looser players and play for set value.
Flop: 9c 2c 5nonclub
Awesome flop, but relatively dry, i check and plan to c/r, hoping BU has on overpair. unfortunately it's checked around.
Turn: Jc
Hero bets 20 bb, BB calls, folded to BU who calls too.
Turn completes FD. I bet 20 bbs, i dont plan on folding, and in case i get raised, it will cost me less to call for my 10 FH outs.
River: 5 non-club
Herobets 35 bbs, BB goes all in, BU folds, Hero calls and is all in.
Since the board is so dry, i make a 35 bb value bet (in relation to the pot it may seem very small, on the verge of too small. But the players dont relate the bet to the pot in the game, and that's considered a pretty big bet).
BB tanks, declares time on himself, eventually he pushes. BU instafolded.
Im pretty sure BB wont shove the nut flush on a paired board, but it's not completely impossible since he's unkown. I also dont think he'll call 10 bbs w/ something like 59,5J etc.
So he has either 22,55,JJ.
I've seen him play, and im pretty sure he would defend JJ from the flush draw and overcards, and probably raise the turn, if not donk the flop. That means 22 or 55. With the worst boat im not sure he would go broke, but i dont really know him that well.
It kinda seems that the only reasonable hand he would shove with is 55, and his hollywood after my river bet is pretty much a red light.
I didnt analyze the hand so deeply, i basically decided im going broke here, if he has 55 or jj NH.
Given these reads, can you even consider folding?!
