[Closed] SNG Prop bet help

Depends on what kind of sng (9man?) and the stakes. Assuming it's low stakes 9man turbo, back when I used to play $6.50s I got ITM 40.5% of the time over the 2200 games I have in my database (11.1% ROI). So yea, 70% is just sick and there's no way you can lose money in this bet =p

Just make sure he needs to play enough games, if he plays 4 games in 3 months and cashes in 3 you're screwed!

Deffo not unless the sample size is small and he flukes it, no matter what level your money should be good here.

He plays mid stakes 9 man standard SNGs.

His Shark scope stats thus far, pretty impressive, even got a wee shark site beside his name, but it still seems like 70% ITM is highly improbable.

Games Plyd Av. Profit Av. Stake Av. ROI Total Profit Ability/100

132 $16 $38 42% $2,139 88

thats no sample size to be scared of

U can easily bet any amount against him if he will play at least 1-2k sngs, noone can be ITM 70% of the time even on 1 dollar sngs with normal sample size. So tell me if i can bet against him too

Can only share from my own experience. On the best rungood of my life i had 52-53% ITM, but only over 60 sngs, over a samplesize above 200 i would say its so unlikely i would bet all money i own. Just make sure we are talking about 9/10 player sngs with standard 3 places ITM. Playing DONs or such i would guess 70% could be possible on the lowest limits.

Firstly I am not very good at SNG
but I think in 1$ normal sng you can achieve 70% ITM. It is quite possible, those opponents are weak.
But if he play mutitable at the same time, I think 70% ITM is impossible even in 1$ sng

and yes if you play don 70% is not a problem.
And if he just play matrix game in ftp, you will see his ITM will sometimes higher than 90%, however which does not mean you will earn money even you had 90% ITM in matrix sng.

But his profit are awesome. Maybe he is prety good at mid stake sng.

I am 100% positive this is not positive over any decent sample size

Originally posted by davidgod
Firstly I am not very good at SNG
but I think in 1$ normal sng you can achieve 70% ITM. It is quite possible, those opponents are weak.
But if he play mutitable at the same time, I think 70% ITM is impossible even in 1$ sng

and yes if you play don 70% is not a problem.
And if he just play matrix game in ftp, you will see his ITM will sometimes higher than 90%, however which does not mean you will earn money even you had 90% ITM in matrix sng.

But his profit are awesome. Maybe he is prety good at mid stake sng.

1$ normal SNGs = no chance. Variance is ridiculous as you get spewy donks doing stupid things in almost every single one. I'm talking about a preflop AI when you hold AA against the idiot who shoves over your 3 bet with 83o and hits 2 pair or some strange straight. Another good one is when you raise with AKo and flop comes AK4 rainbow and the donk who called the raise with J4o just can't let go of his hand after "hitting" the flop and catches another 4 on turn or river. It happens way too frequently in 1$ SNGs.

Back to the prop bet idea, I don't play midstakes so not really sure but 70% ITM seems unrealistic. I'd book that bet in an instant.

impossible to get 70% itm on a decent sample. ship the monies

Yeah, 40% sounds about right.

Even 40% is questionable at middle stakes in my opinion. Achievable but questionable..

Make sure he's not talking about DON's. Maybe if you're really really good i think you can jump over 60%.

I am small stakes SnG player and i play 11+1$ turbos on FTP and i consider my self as a mid skilled player. I had ITM 38.4% with ROI 7.8 from 1k tournies there, so i think that 70% ITM is almost imposible.

... maybea 55 .. but 70 never ... go ahead and make a bet

Originally posted by Pe4Ce2
I am small stakes SnG player and i play 11+1$ turbos on FTP and i consider my self as a mid skilled player. I had ITM 38.4% with ROI 7.8 from 1k tournies there, so i think that 70% ITM is almost imposible.

... maybea 55 .. but 70 never ... go ahead and make a bet

Cheers for the responses, how did you need out you were in the money 38.4% of the time??? I need a way to prove it! He single tables 50-100$ SNGs.

Originally posted by iamblueandurmine

Originally posted by Pe4Ce2
I am small stakes SnG player and i play 11+1$ turbos on FTP and i consider my self as a mid skilled player. I had ITM 38.4% with ROI 7.8 from 1k tournies there, so i think that 70% ITM is almost imposible.

... maybea 55 .. but 70 never ... go ahead and make a bet

Cheers for the responses, how did you need out you were in the money 38.4% of the time??? I need a way to prove it! He single tables 50-100$ SNGs.

.. my holdem manager tells me that

it's HU sngs people, mind you that

if you play matrix you can achieve above 90% ITM if you are good player.
But that does not mean you can actually earn money.

ok so heads up is a different beast, but still quite hard to achieve. defenatley possible at the low end of the market

Nah 9 man standard $50-100 SNGs! Holdem manager hmm none of the sites available do in the money stats?