I was wondering if its profitable to play against a flush draw post-flop?
I'll give a general hand description that I frequently come up with.
Post-flop I'm holding two pairs, or a straight draw. Or even potentially both. I'm in position, and the other guy makes a half pot raise.
I personally feel that it's an easy fold, but I want to know what I should actually be doing when I find myself in these positions.
If you are only up against a FD and you have a pair it is always profitable to play against them since they have 9 outs to improve which gives them ~36% to win...
sorry but if ur holdin 2 pairs on a flop and someone bets half pot u fold?
really?
Originally posted by MrPavlos
sorry but if ur holdin 2 pairs on a flop and someone bets half pot u fold?really?
No, you're assuming too much. I didn't specifically say that's how I play. I play / don't play these hands on a regular basis. Not to mention two pair is a weak hand in omaha in the first place.
I'm simply asking for advice as to what I should be doing.
Seriously this forum is about improving your game. Not spouting off crap that literally holds no merit in the topic at hand.
Originally posted by MrPavlos
big sorry here,just realized this was omaha we re talkin about...
Haha apology accepted. I kind of figured that's what happened. Because two pair in hold'em is a pretty good hand.
I'd say it depends how much they bet and whether you can afford to lose it.
(and whether you have any other outs)
2 prs can convert into fh. Odds aren't great but the resultant position is very nice if the flush happens too. (Top of my head calculation ~~ 20% ?)
+ chance his flush doesn't happen (~64%)
- chance he has other outs (or, heaven forbid, a better hand already)
+ chance his flush isn't the nut flush and he may get scared by someone calling anyway.
- chance it wasn't the flush he was after but had a set instead.
(No point putting figures to them: depends on the player/day/game etc)
That's the main reason to base it on his bet: a low bet implies a flush draw, trying to build the pot without people folding and block bigger bets; a high bet implies something else - something similar or better than what you have - trying to steal it or catch the flush drawers.
I'd say all players (all hands) should want to keep the pot reasonably low if others call before they see the turn unless they have a very strong combination such as set + nut flush draw.
If the turn doesn't complete the flush you're probably in a very strong position to force him out (or win big if he calls and probably misses on the river).
Put yourself in his shoes:
I'm not that keen on being in his position. So many better hands can appear (just 1 community pair on turn or river sets alarm bells ringing) and the chance of hitting it is not exactly great.
All-in-all I think 2 pr vs flush draw (with no other outs) is a strong position to be in. Especially after the turn! 
You've got to watch out for the alternative hands they may have though.
(imho)
I hope that helps.
(please someone correct me if this is wrong)
Straight Draw vs Flush Draw:
Quite rough calculation:
17 card draw:
(assume 3/4 of them don't make his flush) 13/~45, (for him 2 shots need not hit to avoid 992/1980) (opposite of that = ):
~50% chance of winning
13 card draw:
10/~45, 2 shots need not = 1190/1980:
~40% chance of winning
12 card draw:
9/~45, 2 shots need not = 1260/1980:
~36% chance of winning
8 card draw:
6/~45, 2 shots need not = 1482/1980:
~25% chance of winning
4 card draw:
3/~45 = 1/15, 2 shots need not = 1722/1980:
~13% chance of winning
Obviously straights are not necessarily monsters in omaha so i'd have to say avoid such a confrontation unless it's 1 on 1. In a head's-up: go for it with good straight draws, the odds are just about on your side.
And
2 pair vs Flush Draw:
chance to become fh:
4/45, 2 shots need not = 1640/1980
~17% chance
or, more to the point, if there are 9 cards he needs to complete the flush and if 2 of them complete your fh (and anything else he loses), his chance of winning is:
7/45, 2 shots need not = 1406/1980
~29%
Need I say more!
Another set of stats worth knowing is the probability of sets growing or winning otherwise:
Chance of Growing Into FH (ie. a pair appears but not to the set):
6 cards on turn
9 cards on river
Probability of not = 39*35/45*44 = 1365/1980
Probability of = 31%!
Chance of Growing Into Quads :
1 card on turn
1 card on river
Probability of not = 44*43/45*44 = 1892/1980
Probability of = 4.4%
Obviously, you must consider possibility of other sets and 2 pairs and flushes and straights:
Also obviously, it must grow to beat a straight or flush.
Top set is the only one practically certain to beat 2 pair.
Middle set would not benefit from a 2 pair involving the top card hitting another top card and if the turn is higher too it gets more complicated but roughly only half of the full houses would suffice (~15%) to be sure: Obviously, hope for not top pair (unless, possibly, if there's possible flushes and or straights).
Bottom set is very vulnerable to 2 pair and might well hope for no pairs in the centre (except its own) - 69% - and no flushes or straights to be sure.
Obviously, lower sets are totally vulnerable to a higher set: can only win with quads - 4.4%.
In summary:
Top set is superb vs lower set or 2 pair: 90-95% of winning.
Middle set is superb vs bottom set or any 2 pair not involving top card (as top pair), virtually useless vs top set and strong vs 2 pair involving top: ~85% of winning.
Bottom set is virtually useless vs any other set and quite strong vs 2 pair alone: 69% chance of winning.
For all sets vs flush draw, it's just normal chance of flush not appearing unless any of the flush outs complete your hand or if you have any already: 64% +4% for each card of the suit that can be ignored.
Likewise vs straight draws, normal chance of missing the draw plus small percentages for any cards that complete your hand or that you have already: 50 to 85% + 3 to 4% for each out that can be ignored.
vs made flushes or straights they've got 35% chance of winning.
