[Closed] SH AJs IP

I might just fold preflop against an UTG-raiser with 16% PFR.
You're not even on the button.

As played I like a raise on the turn since our hand is so strong and I can definitely see him bet/folding TP-type hands sometimes.
But I would make it smaller, I think $39 is ok, too.

Think I fold pre or on the flop.

Bierbaer, just for clarity, if you raise the turn to $39, are you calling off a shove? Seems like it's close to me. Or rather, we create a situation where we have the right odds to call off c50bb with c25% equity for 150bb pot which looks ok but we engineered the situation that way.

Seems like we need villain to fold quite often to the semibluff raise here for this to be better than break even? May have got this wrong - just put me straight if you would?
Thx

Originally posted by Tim64
Think I fold pre or on the flop.

Bierbaer, just for clarity, if you raise the turn to $39, are you calling off a shove? Seems like it's close to me. Or rather, we create a situation where we have the right odds to call off c50bb with c25% equity for 150bb pot which looks ok but we engineered the situation that way.

Seems like we need villain to fold quite often to the semibluff raise here for this to be better than break even? May have got this wrong - just put me straight if you would?
Thx

Yes I definitely call.
And you're right, we do create such a situation once he does 3bet.
But I think it will rarely happen that he has a hand strong enough to reraise, therefore most of the time we either pick up the pot or we can see the river for what are still relatively good odds (given our potequity) and even decide if we want to valuebet or bluff.

okay, I think I see what you mean but I just want to clarify one thing.

If villain is never folding (assume always calling) our raise on the turn then if we bet $39 then effectively we are paying $39 for a pot of $62.5 (1.6:1 pot odds).

This is compared with if we just call $16 for a pot of $39.5 (2.46:1 pot odds).

Because we get much better pot odds when we just flat call, it seems like we need villain to fold quite a lot to make the raise better (Since our one-street equity is the same). Of course we can continue our turn aggression on the river so we give ourselves an extra street to achieve the fold.

In a nutshell, I think I am trying to understand how often villain needs to fold on the turn for this play to be a good one - and how do we go about assessing this?
Thanks in advance

Originally posted by Tim64
okay, I think I see what you mean but I just want to clarify one thing.

If villain is never folding (assume always calling) our raise on the turn then if we bet $39 then effectively we are paying $39 for a pot of $62.5 (1.6:1 pot odds).

You have to count in the $39 he pays also, so the pot will be $23.5+$39+$39=$101.5,
therefore we only need 39/101.5=~38% equity or 2.6:1 odds.

As played we risk 16 to win 55, so 16/55=~0.29=29% or 1/0.29=3.4, so 3.4:1 odds.

Originally posted by Tim64
In a nutshell, I think I am trying to understand how often villain needs to fold on the turn for this play to be a good one - and how do we go about assessing this?
Thanks in advance

To calculate you how often he needs to fold you have to calculate how much you lose by putting money in the pot first:
Assuming we raise to $39 and have 25% equity on average (and he calls 100%) we get an EV of $39-$101.5*0.25=-$13.5 (rounded from $13.625).
So we need to win $13.5 from his folds.
At the time we put in the raise the pot is $23+$16+$39= $78, therefore we need to have $13.5/$78=17.3% foldequity to make the raise a breakeven-play.

To determine if it is better to raise or call you have to look at his range and make assumptions about what he continues with and what he will fold.

I'll leave that up to you as I think doing that stuff yourself will improve your game a lot but of course if you have any questions or if you're unsure about something just post here and I will assist you.