Hi all, I write this post to ask your opinion.
I'm kinda new at cash NL5; I play NLHE since August 2009 and I played mainly SNGs on stars.it; in october I received my starting capital and with occasional play (1/2 SNG per night due to lack of good connection) I was able to levelup from 1$ to 2$ SNGs.
When I reached the 150$ limit and heard that cash game is supposed to be allowed in Italy I thought it was a good idea to start studying/playing cash on FT in order to gain some knowledge and possibly have an edge. A the moment I have about 15k hands played.
I made my way from 150$ to 195$ on NL2 by playing a mix of BSS and SSS (wherever 30BB can be considered SSS) then finally moved up to NL5.
I didn't do that much table selection honestly and was running fairly well (~30BB/session) then I said: "Oh well I'd better do some table selection and go chase some calling stations!"; so I downloaded TableScanTurbo and started table selecting by choosing tables based on high pot avg/hi VPIP/hi players per flop.
Since then it started my swinging door meaning one day I win 3 buy-ins and the next two days I lose 2 buy-ins/day with total profit of -1buy-in.
I review my session with Pt3 replayer and watch my stats (vp=8/15%, PFR ~10%, AF 3/4) and for me it seems like I'm playing well but most of the time I'm losing money and really don't know is it's related to leaks or just variance.
Example I have some high VPIP at the table and some reg players who play JJ+, 9Ts and similar so my strategy is to 3bet with QQ+ and call20 with mid/low pairs for set value.
Well...in the last 2 weeks if I hit a set then villain has a better set, if I hit set even 3betting them on flop/turn (e.g. 3x their raise) these call and hit the magic straight on the river; if I hit a fullhouse villain has a better fullhouse or (happened once) a quad.
Now I want to understand how to react...is this just a usual downswing or what? Is it a coincidence that this started when I started table-selecting?
Pls advice cos I have no clue


