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[Closed] 200NL - 98 on J9xss9s vs bet/3bet action and riverspot

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Villain: VPIP: 25 Call BB 16% PFR: 18 WTS: 23 AF: 4. 3-bets: 8.0% Sample: 10k Hands - No Reads

Flop - I check behind for pot control, there is really no value in betting, since this board hit his preflop calling range pretty hard. Most times I will get called by better hands or C/R by better hands or draws, either way a bet doesnt accomplish anything.

Turn - I think there is value in raising, since my line looks kinda weird and he will very likely call with a Jxh or straight+FD combodraw. Should I make it bigger here?
THEN he 3bets and I assign him a lot of strength. Given the odds I cant fold I think.

River - The board pairs and he checks. If he would have bet I would have called since he rarely bet/3bets a J on the turn. I would probably call for a split the worst.
BUT he checks and I think he never has a J here. I basically bet to move him off a split here. Should I bet bigger or is there reason in betting a smaller amount to get value if he is getting paranoid?

I would appreciate comments on every street!

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 731806
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $455.20
Hero (BTN): $248.75
SB: $452.00
BB: $215.45

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with 9 :club: 8 :club:
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) 5 :heart: 9 :diamond: J :heart: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($13.00) 9 :heart: (2 players)
BB bets $10.00, Hero raises to $27, BB raises to $60, Hero calls $33

River: ($133.00) J :club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100.00


1 reply
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Preflop is ok obv.

On the flop I like the check, like you said he's either check/folding (not the worst that could happen since he folds some equity but still not too good) or check/raising.
Although imo we could just call the c/r we will end up playing for stacks with 2nd pair or having tough spots a lot.
I don't see him c/calling too much since there are a lot of scarecards he has to fear and he can represent a wide range here.

On the turn I'd also raise his bet. Our raise pretty much looks like a 9 (we don't check FDs on the flop and also Jx is strong enough to bet) but he might expect us to cbet a 9 pretty often.
Once he 3bets I like calling. If he is bluffing imo he will shut down by the river since our call looks strong.
If he shoves a non-FH-completing river I probably give him credit and fold, I don't think he has Jx, but imo it's possible he has better 9x since he can deduct flushes from our range so he might actually valueshove 9x (he doesn't have worse in his range).

Once he checks on the J river I think he doesn't fold 9x, first of all there aren't too many in his range since 3 nines are already out there and additionally I already stated that Jx (like JJ and 55) is not a part of our range.
So imo we should try to maximize the value against flushes - betting $100 makes him fold most flushes imo, I bet $50-$60.
Even though he might still fold it will tilt him more than a big bet on which he can be pretty sure we're betting for value.


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