[Closed] straight and ace draw

c/c flop, c/mr turn is ALWAYS the percieved nuts. He's pretty always got a set here.

You are right to call his min-raise as you not only have implied odds but your direct pot odds are good enough to see if you can hit a J or a 6. Of course you have to be able to fold if you hit an ace. You do have implied odds but if you can't fold when you hit your ace on the river you've also got reverse implied odds playing against you (meaning you'll loose addition money if you improve your hand but not enough). I know you feel like you're commited with your half pot bet left but the truth is your hand has to be good 25% of the time, and I'm 95% sure you don't come anywhere near that number even.

Regardless of all of this I'm probably checking the turn behind. The T isn't exactly a scare card for him but it significantly increases our equity + our hand is cloaked, he'll have a very hard time putting us on 8x. So basically I check the turn behind with the plan of calling any river A or to get it in if we river a J or a 6.

Hi,

Originally posted by Mstlc
c/c flop, c/mr turn is ALWAYS the perceived nuts. He's pretty always got a set here.

You are right to call his min-raise as you not only have implied odds but your direct pot odds are good enough to see if you can hit a J or a 6. Of course you have to be able to fold if you hit an ace. You do have implied odds but if you can't fold when you hit your ace on the river you've also got reverse implied odds playing against you (meaning you'll loose addition money if you improve your hand but not enough). I know you feel like you're committed with your half pot bet left but the truth is your hand has to be good 25% of the time, and I'm 95% sure you don't come anywhere near that number even.

Regardless of all of this I'm probably checking the turn behind. The T isn't exactly a scare card for him but it significantly increases our equity + our hand is cloaked, he'll have a very hard time putting us on 8x. So basically I check the turn behind with the plan of calling any river A or to get it in if we river a J or a 6.

I have a slightly different reasoning for taking the same line but I agree overall.

The main reasons why I wouldn't bet the turn are:

1/ the T is a card that somewhat connects with the rest of board, which means a lot of his flop calling range will have improved somewhat with that card, making like two pairs or a pair with a gutshot, thus decreasing our fold equity on a bet, in my opinion enough so that it's not worth going for another barrel altogether.

2/ if he did indeed make one of those hands, we don't want him to go ahead and check/raise us off our draw if he decides to check/pot it or something, be it with two pairs/sets or even random top pairs he feels like going broke with. Some players will even go nuts like that with pair+draw hands, figuring it has to be the nuts because it has got so many "outs". Especially since he didn't stack with 100bb, we have less room to call a raise and he'll feel committed faster.

You're right about calling the turn minraise with our OESD of course, it's just too good a spot to pass up with those odds and position when we're presented with the chance to crack what appears to be a nutted hand. I also agree about to the A not being an out of most of the time, tho without stats I can certainly see some players showing up with weird stuff that we beat on that river. Likely not enough to reach those 25%, but still.

Hope it helps.