[Closed] NL100 FR AA river decision nutboat vs shove deep

Not sure here, I'd probably make it $56 on the river since I expect him to call any full house.
Once he shoves I would assume fetal position and time out ♦.

But seriously, this is a sick spot.
I'm not sure about the dynamics on rush-tables these days, but this might actually be a fold:
If he had any pocket pair I'm pretty sure he would just call the riverbet and if he had air he would've folded earlier in the hand, there's no reaon for him to call the flop in the first place and once he's on the turn and faces another bet he knows that there are few Kx in our range - but they're there.

So imo he's not bluffing often enough to make calling the river +EV, therefore in theory I'd fold although on the table I might talk myself into calling easily.

Agreed.

When playing the hand I had the impression that it was a 3bet pot preflop so I put QQ in his range. On the river there's no pair that would shove after I showed so much aggression and if it were to raise they would raise small IMO.

At the table I was blinded by the opportunity to win so much in just a hand... I took in consideration that villain could have a K, but didn't want to believe it! "It doesn't happen often to get a 4 of a kind... he must have QQ... please have QQ"

I called... he showed KQo... I almost assumed fetal position ♦

My call was clearly a mistake. There's no other hand that would raise so much on the river.

I post this hand, just for comparison (shallow stack hand). Obviously my call is more straightforward here since it's just 60bb. Once Again, I told myself that the Times he has a T here will be hugely outweighed by the times he has an Ace and we're splitting or a worse pair. Be warned, the massive River overbet is always quads ♦

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($200)
Hero ($127)
UTG ($37)
UTG+1 ($32)
CO ($164)
BTN ($72.30)

Dealt to Hero Q♠ A♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $1, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $6

FLOP ($16) 3♦ A♣ T♣

SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8

TURN ($32) 3♦ A♣ T♣ T♠

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($32) 3♦ A♣ T♣ T♠ T♥

SB bets $184 (AI), Hero calls $111 (AI)

Hero shows Q♠ A♥
(Pre 62%, Flop 77.2%, Turn 4.5%)

SB shows T♦ J♣
(Pre 38%, Flop 22.8%, Turn 95.5%)

SB wins $251

@Tim
Make it bigger on the flop, you're dominating a lot of aces and you want value from draws, imo you should bet at least $12.

As played I call the river. For 60BB there's no way folding this imo since the A on the board changes the hand very much:
He could easily have an A himself and try to make it look like a bluff.
Also the FD missed and he's only shoving for half a stack so there's still the possibility of him having a busted draw.